Gnothisafton

Is it time for Value Stocks? Lumen Technologies case study

Long
NYSE:LUMN   LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC
In a market where most stock valuations have skyrocketed to Mars, Lumen Technologies is one of the bright exceptions,
being perhaps one of the safest investments available, for the investor to sleep soundly at night. LUMN has great fundamentals
and is a much underestimated VALUE STOCK, ready to change the declining trend of many years to rising.

In an article he wrote a year ago, Jeff Storey, CEO of Lumen Technologies (rebranded CenturyLink), stated: ‘During the last century,
telephone companies pioneered early networks by standing up poles and stringing phone wires across the nation. Today, the new
pioneers are tech companies like CenturyLink who are standing up networks and stretching fiber across the globe—and in the process,
making exciting technologies like 5G possible’.

Lumen Technologies is an international facilities-based communications company engaged primarily in providing a broad array
of integrated services to business and residential customers in over 60 countries. Lumen’s enterprise technology platform enables
companies to capitalize on emerging applications and power the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR).

Lumen Technologies states that ‘Lumen is the fastest, most secure platform for next-gen business applications and data, integrating global
network infrastructure, cloud connectivity, edge computing, connected security, voice, collaboration and enterprise-class services into a seamless experience’.

Lumen is ranked No. 29 on Washington Technology's 2020 Top 100 list of federal government IT contractors.

From a fundamental analysis point of view, LUMN with capitalization 12.54B (11.43 $/share), P/E 9.57, P/S 0.58, P/B 0.91, EV /EBITDA 5.27,
Div . Yield 8.85%, Intrinsic Value 16 $, Buffetts Limit 18$, can be considered as a cheap stock. The only negative element is Debt to equity ratio which is 2.41.

From a technical analysis point of view, LUMN’s monthly diagram shows that the stock is possibly in the process of trend changing. The three
preceding years, while the stock reaching its bottom the volume rose to historical levels, which means that shares changed hands from retail
to smart money. Also notice the break-up of the RSI declining trend line and the divergences that appeared.

Next follows LUMN’s daily diagram.


Notice that stock’s price is over 200d, 30d and 9d SMAs . Additionally, notice the consolidation and resistance zones and that the RSI is in high overbought zone,
so the correction of prices or a short period of consolidation is possible.

Next follows LUMN’s 30 minutes diagram.


Notice that stock’s price is over 200(30m), 30(30m) and 9(30m) SMAs . Also notice the up trending channel and that prices are in the middle of the channel and the
Bollinger Bands , while MACD and RSI are declining, indicating a possible pullback or more likely a consolidation in these levels, until reaching the channel’s lower trend line .

Conclusively, I think no investor should ignore LUMN , because it is very likely to be A SUCCESS TURN TREND STORY that may give big gains in 2021 (and next years) with MINIMUM INVESTMENT RISK.

Of course the stock is suitable not only for long term investors, but also for short and mid term traders as well.

Finally, I encourage you not to lean on my analysis but to make your own research for the company before investing in LUMN .

Comment: Disclaimer
The writer of this text is not an investment advisor. The preceding content is intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. It is not an advice or inducement for the purchase or sale of the products mentioned. Before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances, it is very important to do your own research and analysis and also take independent financial advice from a professional to verify any information provided here.

Comments

novice here...i made the move this morning purely based on the chart.. it was nice to have your report as confirmation. 25% pump in three hours!
Reply
Gnothisafton edisoncos
@edisoncos, Read my new post for your confirmation.
Reply
Lot of great info here! Thanks for sharing, I am very simple novice investor. I appreciate what you have shared very much!

Do you (or anybody reading this) have any thoughts on the following thoughts/rumors I have heard recently....

☑️ Is Jeff Storey leaving at some point soon and if so do you think he will complete whatever his plans may be to solidify Lumen's profitability?
☑️ Some investors have felt CenturyLink was an outdated rural isp living on borrowed time until they completed the Level 3 merger.
☑️ Are their any possibilities Lumen could/would reverse the Level 3 merger somehow?!? (Heard this on an investors podcast & was shocked/confused.)
☑️ CenturyLink was thought to be a $10 stock & Level 3 around $40. Is Lumen taking full advantage of Level 3 infrastructure effectively in your opinion?
☑️ I have seen a few 'experts' value Lumen at $30-$35 a share despite the shrinkage of their rural ISP market?

To me LUMN is a safe investment at least for the foreseeable future - the dividend is re-assuring at the very least. I just wonder what they REAL stock price potential could be in the next few year? (Best guess?)

(I am a complete novice, so forgive my lack of technical terms. I was hoping somebody could make heads or tails of my thoughts. Thanks in advance.)
Reply
Gnothisafton TradeOgre
@TradeOgre,

Thank you for your kind words.

Regarding what you are asking, I would like to state that I do not consider myself an expert in Lumen Technologies. However, from what I have read,
I have the impression that CenturyLink acquired Level 3 Communications to exploit its expertise and fiber optic network and to change business model
preparing for the 4th Industrial Revolution.

The experience I have in the IT sector, the moves made by Lumen (name change, new platform LUMEN, fiber-optics for 5G, data centers, cloud, AI etc.)
and the diagrammatic picture of the stock, lead me to conclude that the company has a bright future in the years to come. As for the rumors that are circulating,
it is, in my opinion, for the small shareholders to sell their shares. So listen only to your logic and not the rumors. Multibillion-dollar investments were made
to be thrown into the wastebasket.

The long-term trend chart shows that the target for the next 1-2 years (may be sooner), is the big resistance of the Simple Moving Average of 200 months to about $30.

I recommend you read my post ‘How new traders can protect their capital’ and apply the simple and effective method of technical analysis 30d/200d SMA trading system.
Reply
TradeOgre Gnothisafton
@Gnothisafton, Thanks for your reply, greatly appreciate it!
Reply
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