IvanLabrie

LUNAUSDT: Huge upside vs modest risk

Long
BINANCE:LUNAUSDT   Luna / TetherUS
I've been thinking about it and the setup here is probably the best trade to take in crypto markets going into the end of the long term trend signals I had forecasted in $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD as far back as July 2020.
Weekly and daily charts , and also ratios vs $BTC and $ETH show $LUNA can perform incredibly going forward. We all are aware of Do Kwon's stunt, to accumulate a massive $Bitcoin stash to back his $UST stablecoin, and thus reinforce the self reinforced trend present in $LUNA from the start. The last big self reinforced trend we observed in crypto was $Solana and also $Bitcoin and the $GBTC arb play that was absorbing a lot of supply and fueling speculation until the Canadian ETF launched. These trends form tremendous bubbles that George Soros describes as the ideal opportunity to build wealth when identified. The key will be identifying what breaks the self reinforced mechanism, and reverses the trend bursting the bubble that is being inflated here.

The mechanism in question makes each transaction made using Terra’s stablecoin incur a fee which is goes to reward holders of $Luna, the ecosystem's 2nd native token. The Treasury and miners hold these tokens, so higher transaction volumes create more miner demand (which should increase the cost of attacking the network in theory) while giving the Treasury more funds to protect the stablecoin and fund discounts for Terra users who make purchases with the stablecoin (similar to cashbacks). As such, transaction growth will impact $LUNAUSD's price via this mechanism...Can be a double edged blade, and will be interesting to see how this bubble unwinds. For now, it's a good thing to hold considering downside risk and timing of the T@M signals present in the weekly chart.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: Bot at weekly support here, there is two possible outcomes: the first 10 week signal to form that expires next week, drags this down to $44 over time...or, the currently active 10 week signal drives this up for longer, stop loss is tight, at 94.12, so it is a good thing to trade here. I'm also short $BTCPERP with 52.67% of my account from $46854, with a break even stop...and long $LUNAUSDT from 107.96 with stop @ 94.12, risking 1% with that long. I wouldn't advise to go long all in unless you can stomach 12 ish % risk.
Trade active
Trade closed manually: Since the acquisition of $AVAXUSD for reserves of $UST, there has been a lot of weakness relatively and n the $USD chart for Terra. I fear the weekly trend that expires next week might be influencing price here. The daily will expire as a failure if below 136.94 by April 19th, the weekly expires as a failure if below $197 by next Sunday close, if so, it predicts a move back down to $44. Sadly this trade is better closed. I had tweeted about getting out yesterday but didn't get to update here.

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