a weekly priceaction market recap and outlook - eur/usd

CME_MINI:M6E1!   Micro EUR/USD Futures
Good evening and i hope you are well.

Starting today i will do weekly fx recaps/outlooks for the 3 following currencies: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GPB/USD (will only post 1 of the 3 here on tradingview).

Let’s start off with a monthly time frame. Market is in a multi decade bear trend and struggling to find a bottom. Was the 202209 low below 1 the true bottom? No idea and nor has someone else. What we do know is, market pulled back more than 50% of it and is ranging right around that level for many months now. Since markets continue to do what they have been doing, the high probability trades are betting on a continuation of the range between 1.058 and 1.105 on a daily/weekly. On the monthly the range is 1.06 to 1.22 (orange dotted lines).

bull case: Bulls see the market oscillating around the monthly 20ema for a year now and since market are trading below, they want back above and first target is to retest the 50% pullback price around 1.097 and then the small bear trend line around 1.1 to 1.105. They bought at the 2023-12 lows and their first target now is trading above 1.1084 and making higher highs again.

bear case: Bears see 3 clear pushes on the weekly tf for the bulls from the 2023-10 low to the 2023-12 high. They want their 3 pushes down to retest the 2023-10 lows now and one could argue, that they already had 2. We are probably working on a pullback currently and then market decides if bears get a third one below 1.06 or not.

outlook last week: “sideways to up. i can’t see bears strong enough for a breakout of the triangle. odds favor the bulls to form a lower high (to around 1.1) inside the triangle which would form a good looking head & shoulders pattern.“

→ Last Monday we traded 1.0785 and now we are at 1.0793. Does not get better than that. Hope you faded moves.

short term: sideways to up (very small up) - bulls probably get a bounce and then market decides for a third bear leg or up again to 1. target 1.097

medium-long term: sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105


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