Manufacturing numbers continue to be horrendous at best, and with recent escalating tariffs between US-China which will only seemingly get worse through time, manufacturing should inevitably decline even further through Q4 2019 and Q1 2020.
From number extrapolation based on key data I am targeting a PMI of around 39 late Q2 2020 or possibly Q3 2020. In the near term, we can expect around 45 PMI before Q1 2020. Since the tariffs begin in September however, I suspect August and September will likely only go down 0.5 month to month from July's value of 51.2.
As we move closer to the general election in the United States, I suspect there will end up being a trade deal otherwise Trumps chance of winning will be hindered significantly; as such I do not expect numbers to become as stale as 2008-2009 in the manufacturing sector, but likely be 4-5 points higher from the 35 value we saw back then (i.e. predicting 39 bottom).
Highlights (Predictions)
- Current (July): 51.2
- Fall 2019 (Sept/Oct/Nov): 49-44
- Winter & Spring 2019/2020 (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar/April/May): 43-39
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I will be monitoring this situation very carefully and will update this post as newer information and data becomes available.
Please check back on a monthly basis as manufacturing numbers come out for the most up-to-date data and analysis!
- zSplit
From number extrapolation based on key data I am targeting a PMI of around 39 late Q2 2020 or possibly Q3 2020. In the near term, we can expect around 45 PMI before Q1 2020. Since the tariffs begin in September however, I suspect August and September will likely only go down 0.5 month to month from July's value of 51.2.
As we move closer to the general election in the United States, I suspect there will end up being a trade deal otherwise Trumps chance of winning will be hindered significantly; as such I do not expect numbers to become as stale as 2008-2009 in the manufacturing sector, but likely be 4-5 points higher from the 35 value we saw back then (i.e. predicting 39 bottom).
Highlights (Predictions)
- Current (July): 51.2
- Fall 2019 (Sept/Oct/Nov): 49-44
- Winter & Spring 2019/2020 (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar/April/May): 43-39
--
I will be monitoring this situation very carefully and will update this post as newer information and data becomes available.
Please check back on a monthly basis as manufacturing numbers come out for the most up-to-date data and analysis!
- zSplit
Comment:
Latest ISM PMI dropped once again below the forecasted average at 47.8 which is in-line for my Sept/Oct/Nov prediction of 49 down to 44 which i predicted back on August 1.
Manufacturing shows absolutely no signs of strengthening and will continue to deteriorate.
Before Christmas I believe the Manufacturing data will be in the 43 range.
Manufacturing shows absolutely no signs of strengthening and will continue to deteriorate.
Before Christmas I believe the Manufacturing data will be in the 43 range.
I will continue to update this idea as new PMI data releases. If you are a big macro analyst and interested in the underlying trends for economic downturns, please check back.