November 29 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,631 High-Volume Area, $3,655 and $3,668.75 Rally Highs, $3,620 and $3,610 Nodes.
Technical:
After an initiative drive alongside news that provided clarity on the election transition, participants recovered the $3,580 balance-area boundary, invalidating the prior week’s selling activity. Afterwards, conviction disappeared and the market remained range-bound, as evidenced by a non-participatory delta (i.e., the non-presence of committed buying) and mechanical trade (i.e., low-excess at the edges of developing balance).
Given that initiative buyers remain in control, participants come into Monday’s session knowing recent activity has been dominated by short-term, momentum-driven buying, sentiment is stretched, and cash levels are low.
Therefore, if participants manage to spend time and build value above the $3,631 micro-composite high-volume node, then the S&P 500 may confirm a multi-month balance-break. Otherwise, an initiative drive below the high-volume node would put the rally on hold.
Image of potential $SPX Balance-Break:
Fundamental:
In a commentary, BlackRock upgraded its outlook on U.S. equities. bit.ly/3o4K7b2
We upgrade U.S. equities to overweight, with a preference for quality large caps riding structural growth trends – as well as smaller companies geared to a potential cyclical upswing. We prefer to look through any near-term market volatility as Covid cases surge. Positive vaccine news reinforces our outlook for an accelerated restart during 2021, reducing risks of permanent economic scarring.
Simply put, BlackRock suggests an accelerated restart on structural growth trends and a cyclical upswing, as a result of positive COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine developments, could benefit the market during 2021.
Key Events:
Monday: Pending Home Sales YoY.
Tuesday: Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Fed Brainard Speech, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Evans Speech.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Fed Harker Speech, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Beige Book.
Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, Non-Manufacturing Employment, Non-Manufacturing New Orders, Non-Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing Prices.
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Average Hourly Earnings Mom and YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Balance of Trade, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Fed Evans Speech, Factory Orders MoM, Fed Bowman Speech.
Recent News:
Yellen would push expansive economic policy amid hawkish fiscal tone. bloom.bg/3fNQY5H
Hedge fund Citadel doubled down, and more, on shale in third quarter. bit.ly/3fLcesI
JPMorgan Chase and Co (NYSE: JPM) says the economy will shrink. bit.ly/2JsJPeR
OPEC+ faces seismic demand split as cartel, ministers plot next move. bloom.bg/2JibbEY
Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) S&P debut will put $100 billion in motion. on.wsj.com/3mxiGq9
The International Energy Agency releases 2020 World Energy Outlook. bit.ly/3liR3j3
Biden presidency to create ‘big momentum’ on tackling climate change. bit.ly/39relRi
Tesla Inc’s plan to turn Berlin plant into ‘world’s largest EV battery plant’. bit.ly/3qdDRjd
Interim Report: NYMEX WTI Crude Contract Trading around April 2020. bit.ly/3lhh6XW
Regulator rescinds Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 order, a credit positive. bit.ly/37y5B9N
Coca-Cola Co (NYSE: KO) to not benefit from U.S. Tax Court opinions. bit.ly/37y5B9N
Alphabet Inc’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) growth into banking bad for banks. bit.ly/37y5B9N
Nasdaq Inc’s (NASDAQ: NDAQ) acquisition of Verafin a credit negative. bit.ly/37y5B9N
Could a COVID-19 vaccine mean a rebound for travel startups in 2020? bit.ly/39rCOG7
Ten COVID-19 vaccines seen by mid-year says head of a pharma group. reut.rs/33pxkYE
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) crypto Libra to launch as early as January. reut.rs/3qae6A8
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 47.3% Bullish, 25.3% Neutral, 27.5% Bearish as of 11/25/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 3,668,362,084 as of 11/27/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 41.5% as of 11/27/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,631 High-Volume Area, $3,655 and $3,668.75 Rally Highs, $3,620 and $3,610 Nodes.
Technical:
After an initiative drive alongside news that provided clarity on the election transition, participants recovered the $3,580 balance-area boundary, invalidating the prior week’s selling activity. Afterwards, conviction disappeared and the market remained range-bound, as evidenced by a non-participatory delta (i.e., the non-presence of committed buying) and mechanical trade (i.e., low-excess at the edges of developing balance).
Given that initiative buyers remain in control, participants come into Monday’s session knowing recent activity has been dominated by short-term, momentum-driven buying, sentiment is stretched, and cash levels are low.
Therefore, if participants manage to spend time and build value above the $3,631 micro-composite high-volume node, then the S&P 500 may confirm a multi-month balance-break. Otherwise, an initiative drive below the high-volume node would put the rally on hold.
Image of potential $SPX Balance-Break:
Fundamental:
In a commentary, BlackRock upgraded its outlook on U.S. equities. bit.ly/3o4K7b2
We upgrade U.S. equities to overweight, with a preference for quality large caps riding structural growth trends – as well as smaller companies geared to a potential cyclical upswing. We prefer to look through any near-term market volatility as Covid cases surge. Positive vaccine news reinforces our outlook for an accelerated restart during 2021, reducing risks of permanent economic scarring.
Simply put, BlackRock suggests an accelerated restart on structural growth trends and a cyclical upswing, as a result of positive COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine developments, could benefit the market during 2021.
Key Events:
Monday: Pending Home Sales YoY.
Tuesday: Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Fed Brainard Speech, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Evans Speech.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Fed Harker Speech, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Beige Book.
Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, Non-Manufacturing Employment, Non-Manufacturing New Orders, Non-Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing Prices.
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Average Hourly Earnings Mom and YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Balance of Trade, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Fed Evans Speech, Factory Orders MoM, Fed Bowman Speech.
Recent News:
Yellen would push expansive economic policy amid hawkish fiscal tone. bloom.bg/3fNQY5H
Hedge fund Citadel doubled down, and more, on shale in third quarter. bit.ly/3fLcesI
JPMorgan Chase and Co (NYSE: JPM) says the economy will shrink. bit.ly/2JsJPeR
OPEC+ faces seismic demand split as cartel, ministers plot next move. bloom.bg/2JibbEY
Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) S&P debut will put $100 billion in motion. on.wsj.com/3mxiGq9
The International Energy Agency releases 2020 World Energy Outlook. bit.ly/3liR3j3
Biden presidency to create ‘big momentum’ on tackling climate change. bit.ly/39relRi
Tesla Inc’s plan to turn Berlin plant into ‘world’s largest EV battery plant’. bit.ly/3qdDRjd
Interim Report: NYMEX WTI Crude Contract Trading around April 2020. bit.ly/3lhh6XW
Regulator rescinds Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 order, a credit positive. bit.ly/37y5B9N
Coca-Cola Co (NYSE: KO) to not benefit from U.S. Tax Court opinions. bit.ly/37y5B9N
Alphabet Inc’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) growth into banking bad for banks. bit.ly/37y5B9N
Nasdaq Inc’s (NASDAQ: NDAQ) acquisition of Verafin a credit negative. bit.ly/37y5B9N
Could a COVID-19 vaccine mean a rebound for travel startups in 2020? bit.ly/39rCOG7
Ten COVID-19 vaccines seen by mid-year says head of a pharma group. reut.rs/33pxkYE
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) crypto Libra to launch as early as January. reut.rs/3qae6A8
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 47.3% Bullish, 25.3% Neutral, 27.5% Bearish as of 11/25/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 3,668,362,084 as of 11/27/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 41.5% as of 11/27/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
