2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Uber important trading day tomorrow. Bears need to bring their A game and trap bulls below 5300. If they manage to do so, we will close the week at the lows and get a huge sell signal going into next week.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 5270 - 5368. Below 5270 is 5220 and then 5200.

bull case: Globex printed 2 bear bars in 23 15m bars. Market then got a second leg up to a new ath 5368.25. The sell-off caught many bulls off guard and never let them out if they bought the highs. Bulls need to quickly trade back above 5300 and then 5320 or they risk that more bulls will exit their long positions going into the weekend. Invalid below 5260.

bear case: 5260 was around my measured move target, which we will very likely hit tomorrow. The real question is then if bulls can make 5250-5260 resistance or will we crash to 5200 and into the weekend? My preferred path is drawn on the chart. Invalid above 5320

short term: Bearish. This weekly close will be important. The closer bears could get it to last weeks close 5216, the better for them, going into next week.

medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged

trade of the day: Long since Globex on very strong buying to 5368 but market then went on and endless pullback and never let bulls out who bought high and that fueled the violent move down today.