2024-04-15 - a daily price action after hour update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bull case: 50 points down and 60 points up. Unreal price action for this Market. Bulls bought where they had to, to stay inside the broad bull channel or expanding triangle. Call it what you want, you trade it the same. Since Fridays sell off was so extreme, I rather be humble as a bull and take my profits on weakness. Retest of 2450 or higher depends on the news. Sad but that just so. Big macro risk is just that.
bear case: Bears tried to get below 2360 but failed miserably. Now the best they can hope for is weakness around 2400 and market stays under but hard to imagine. When the buyers come around again like Friday and today since bar 11, bears just move aside and this melts. Odds clearly favor the bulls.
short term: Sideways to up - Invalid below 2340. Expect 2420 or higher tomorrow, unless big sellers appear again. Perfect momentum market currently.
medium-long term: It’s fair to say that we are living through a macro event, which I have been talking about for many weeks now, not knowing anything about the middle east. Markets do what they do, before the fitting news comes around. Someone always knows. Right now this is going up and only up. Do I want to buy long term Gold longs? Hell no. Only short term trades for me here. Since you asked… I can not dream up reasons why Gold would trade above 2400 a year from now. But I sure can be wrong about that.
trade of the day: Follow the momentum.
bull case: 50 points down and 60 points up. Unreal price action for this Market. Bulls bought where they had to, to stay inside the broad bull channel or expanding triangle. Call it what you want, you trade it the same. Since Fridays sell off was so extreme, I rather be humble as a bull and take my profits on weakness. Retest of 2450 or higher depends on the news. Sad but that just so. Big macro risk is just that.
bear case: Bears tried to get below 2360 but failed miserably. Now the best they can hope for is weakness around 2400 and market stays under but hard to imagine. When the buyers come around again like Friday and today since bar 11, bears just move aside and this melts. Odds clearly favor the bulls.
short term: Sideways to up - Invalid below 2340. Expect 2420 or higher tomorrow, unless big sellers appear again. Perfect momentum market currently.
medium-long term: It’s fair to say that we are living through a macro event, which I have been talking about for many weeks now, not knowing anything about the middle east. Markets do what they do, before the fitting news comes around. Someone always knows. Right now this is going up and only up. Do I want to buy long term Gold longs? Hell no. Only short term trades for me here. Since you asked… I can not dream up reasons why Gold would trade above 2400 a year from now. But I sure can be wrong about that.
trade of the day: Follow the momentum.