a daily price action after hour update - are the highs in?
Good evening and i hope you are well.
Clickbaity question in topic got you, don’t you deny it. I’m sorry. So i give you my tl;dr first, then you can decide if you want to read through this.
I do think the chance that the high’s are in, is greater than that we print higher.
Well, why not a yes or a no? Because we are trading and it’s a game of odds and not black & white fairytale land with clear answers. Let me make my case why i think the highs are in. First and most important was today’s close. sp500 & nasdaq both closed below the globex low. Nasdaq printed a new ath 78 points above the old one but closed below the old one. That’s not good for the bulls. Second, how did we get here? I will use nasdaq as my prime example today because it’s the most bullish.
nasdaq
The rally began end of october and everyone knows we are in the 3 leg up. All targets are met and we are at multiple resistance lines. Market went a bit above and closed at the lows. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow and bulls start taking profits, this can go down inside the wedge and to the daily 20ema pretty fast. That does not mean we will just start a bear trend from here but i think the odds of sideways to down are amazing. Thursday and friday were buy climaxes and they are unsustainable. So where do we go from here? I think the bull case, that we print substantially higher is 10% at best. Odds favor forming a top, moving sideways and this could take days to weeks. Personally i do think we will be faster this time around.
The first target for the bears was a close below the 1h 20ema. Next is 17430 - 17500 where i expect more sideways movement. If bears can push it even further and bulls start taking profits, next targets are the daily 20ema around 17100ish and then a probable neckline 16450 which will be the big resistance for bears and a good sport for rally to a lower high to form a double top / or right shoulder.
short term: sideways to down
medium-long term: sell. it. all. - here is a good spot to start building long term shorts
trade of the day: opening reversal which was bought at the 15m 20ema around 17640 for new ath. that was good for 150 points
Clickbaity question in topic got you, don’t you deny it. I’m sorry. So i give you my tl;dr first, then you can decide if you want to read through this.
I do think the chance that the high’s are in, is greater than that we print higher.
Well, why not a yes or a no? Because we are trading and it’s a game of odds and not black & white fairytale land with clear answers. Let me make my case why i think the highs are in. First and most important was today’s close. sp500 & nasdaq both closed below the globex low. Nasdaq printed a new ath 78 points above the old one but closed below the old one. That’s not good for the bulls. Second, how did we get here? I will use nasdaq as my prime example today because it’s the most bullish.
nasdaq
The rally began end of october and everyone knows we are in the 3 leg up. All targets are met and we are at multiple resistance lines. Market went a bit above and closed at the lows. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow and bulls start taking profits, this can go down inside the wedge and to the daily 20ema pretty fast. That does not mean we will just start a bear trend from here but i think the odds of sideways to down are amazing. Thursday and friday were buy climaxes and they are unsustainable. So where do we go from here? I think the bull case, that we print substantially higher is 10% at best. Odds favor forming a top, moving sideways and this could take days to weeks. Personally i do think we will be faster this time around.
The first target for the bears was a close below the 1h 20ema. Next is 17430 - 17500 where i expect more sideways movement. If bears can push it even further and bulls start taking profits, next targets are the daily 20ema around 17100ish and then a probable neckline 16450 which will be the big resistance for bears and a good sport for rally to a lower high to form a double top / or right shoulder.
short term: sideways to down
medium-long term: sell. it. all. - here is a good spot to start building long term shorts
trade of the day: opening reversal which was bought at the 15m 20ema around 17640 for new ath. that was good for 150 points