Andy_D

MSB - Technical Analysis - 100%+ gains?

Long
ASX:MSB   MESOBLAST LIMITED
I hope you like my analysis. Very risky stock to invest in, but with potentially big upside in the scenario that there is good news from the FDA in future, which could conclude with a 3-4month Phase 4 trial ( CRL ) and see the price action head towards 8.60$, after breaking through previous resistances and fib-levels on the way ... this is in order to respect the current trendline which formed (weak trend, given the large gap in the chart) since close Friday/open today.

My conservative analysis based on 2 fundamental outcomes would be the following:

  • From now til around March next year, if there are mostly low-impact news/announcements along the way, and no serious negative ones (impossible to predict), the stock will likely trend up from here, riding hype of a potentially large and favorable outcome from the FDA, as well as other potential catalysts.

  • I estimate based off my TA as well as FA that it may take up until Feb 21' to reach the previous high (5.70) - 0 on the fib. I estimate if that happens + good news comes out, 8.60 is not unreasonable of a target. Higher in future if they release positive outcomes for their other drugs in trials, if they are able to expand their applications for drugs in the pipeline, and nail distribution. This will lead to more profits, cash flow, and hopefully no debt on their balance sheet .

  • If FDA doesn't approve, then I am convinced the FDA is corrupt, only cares about national interests, or who bribes them the most. You have Opioids/fentanyl crisis in America because they're prescribed like candy, and where opioids are the most commonly prescribed for lower back pain -- another ailment MSB's product line can potentially treat.

  • RSI is currently oversold, based on the space between observable "cycles" in this stock, there's usually around 120-130 days between bull/bear trends (based off most recent 3). 120-130 days matches my thesis of march/april if all goes well. It could happen much sooner, much later, or not at all. But I think probability leans in favor of this outcome. Of course, nobody has a crystal ball.

*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DYOR. ALL INVESTING CARRIES RISK OF LOSS OF CAPITAL. ONLY INVEST WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. *

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