Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 3 Jan 2024
I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Usually, I am looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq was bullish overall and trading with the trend is always a good idea.
But bears have totally dominated, with a push down of nearly 6000 pips.
This could be a total trend reversal i.e. we move into a bear market. Or it could be a big retracement on the D TF (from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
Retracement levels marked with orange text.
I believe it will ultimately be a retracement.
A huge double top formed previously on the D TF (marked in pink). Market usually moves the same distance as the height of the pattern after the neckline is broken (marked by the pink vertical line). Yesterday we saw the D candle close below the neckline effectively breaking the neckline.
So far today, the D EMA and D 0.382 retracement level has not been enough to stop the bears, and judging by the pink vertical line, market could still fall some way.
I entered a small buy (10% of my usual position size) on a double bottom that formed on the 15min TM but closed soon after.
What could I have done differently:
It’s ridiculous of me to think that it's enough confirmation to enter a buy on a 15min TF (a very small TF).
A 6000 pip bearish move will not come to a screaming halt on a 15min double bottom. There will be a double bottom or other market pattern formed on a much larger TF.
Other than that, I just observed the market today. We are in a retracement zone….so not changing my bias to bearish until I can rule out a bull retracement.
Learnt a lot from these past few days. My biggest lesson was the power and strength of double tops forming on multiple timeframes at the same time - as we saw today again (double top on 1H and 4H).
If I had to enter a sell today, it would have been at C. (for an aggressive entry (0.618 sell fib level + respecting the 30 min EMA)) or at D. (break of the neckline of the double top).
Good luck if you are still trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Usually, I am looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq was bullish overall and trading with the trend is always a good idea.
But bears have totally dominated, with a push down of nearly 6000 pips.
This could be a total trend reversal i.e. we move into a bear market. Or it could be a big retracement on the D TF (from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
Retracement levels marked with orange text.
I believe it will ultimately be a retracement.
A huge double top formed previously on the D TF (marked in pink). Market usually moves the same distance as the height of the pattern after the neckline is broken (marked by the pink vertical line). Yesterday we saw the D candle close below the neckline effectively breaking the neckline.
So far today, the D EMA and D 0.382 retracement level has not been enough to stop the bears, and judging by the pink vertical line, market could still fall some way.
I entered a small buy (10% of my usual position size) on a double bottom that formed on the 15min TM but closed soon after.
What could I have done differently:
It’s ridiculous of me to think that it's enough confirmation to enter a buy on a 15min TF (a very small TF).
A 6000 pip bearish move will not come to a screaming halt on a 15min double bottom. There will be a double bottom or other market pattern formed on a much larger TF.
Other than that, I just observed the market today. We are in a retracement zone….so not changing my bias to bearish until I can rule out a bull retracement.
Learnt a lot from these past few days. My biggest lesson was the power and strength of double tops forming on multiple timeframes at the same time - as we saw today again (double top on 1H and 4H).
If I had to enter a sell today, it would have been at C. (for an aggressive entry (0.618 sell fib level + respecting the 30 min EMA)) or at D. (break of the neckline of the double top).
Good luck if you are still trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average