Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 11 Jan 2024
I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Thursday was CPI news release.
I usually don’t like trading in the hours before the news event because market is often times very flat.
I left a small position open from Wednesday, but closed at A. when I noted the weakness on the 15min TF.
So I closed this position at a +- 1’200 pip profit.
As we were getting closer to CPI, I noted the 30min 20 EMA providing dynamic support.
One minute before CPI, I opened a buy at B.
For me, news events are like gambling because market can go either way and I don't know how to stack probabilities in my favour. For this reason I went in very small.
CPI candle shot down, but I noted the reaction to the pivot point.
The closure of the CPI candle formed a nice head and shoulder market pattern on the 1H TF.
I knew immediately I was not in a good position with my B. buy and wanted to get out asap.
But instead of panicking and closing immediately, I set a mental stop for myself under the pivot point (if candles started closing below this point a sell would ensue).
When the second candle came down to the pivot point again, I monitored price action on the 5min TF and decided to open a second position of equal size to my B. position. Second buy position is marked with C.
This was right on my mental stop loss, so if market continued to move down I would not have taken a big loss here.
However, bulls pushed up to re-test the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders pattern.
At about D. (which was where the 1H EMA was positioned at the time), I decided to close my B. position. I felt that the EMA could easily push price back down. At D. I had reduced my loss on B. by about half and considering it was a small position, I was happy to take that loss and get out of this “bad” position.
If market would continue to go up then the profit from my C. position would cover that loss easily, but if market went back down then I would be so happy to be out of that position.
I secured my C. position at entry (i.e placed stop loss at entry).
Phew – I was ok and felt I had managed my risk. I was happy to take the small loss from my B. position and would not re-enter the market if my C. position got taken out.
Unfortunately, bulls could not break the neckline of the market pattern and when the candle at E. closed I knew my buy would not work out. I got taken out at entry and stayed out for the rest of the day.
Ultimately, I still made pips for the day as the profit from the position I carried over from Wednesday was slightly more than the loss I took for CPI.
It was a hectic day and I hope you did well!
Today, market looks choppy so far and I believe PPI will bring some more volatility to the table.
What could I have done differently:
Ultimately, market came up all the way to my B position, meaning that I could’ve closed at entry without taking a loss. If I had looked at the 5min chart, there was no weakness at the 1H 20 EMA level. This means I closed based on fear and not on price action. Next time, I need to remain even calmer and let the candles do the talking.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Thursday was CPI news release.
I usually don’t like trading in the hours before the news event because market is often times very flat.
I left a small position open from Wednesday, but closed at A. when I noted the weakness on the 15min TF.
So I closed this position at a +- 1’200 pip profit.
As we were getting closer to CPI, I noted the 30min 20 EMA providing dynamic support.
One minute before CPI, I opened a buy at B.
For me, news events are like gambling because market can go either way and I don't know how to stack probabilities in my favour. For this reason I went in very small.
CPI candle shot down, but I noted the reaction to the pivot point.
The closure of the CPI candle formed a nice head and shoulder market pattern on the 1H TF.
I knew immediately I was not in a good position with my B. buy and wanted to get out asap.
But instead of panicking and closing immediately, I set a mental stop for myself under the pivot point (if candles started closing below this point a sell would ensue).
When the second candle came down to the pivot point again, I monitored price action on the 5min TF and decided to open a second position of equal size to my B. position. Second buy position is marked with C.
This was right on my mental stop loss, so if market continued to move down I would not have taken a big loss here.
However, bulls pushed up to re-test the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders pattern.
At about D. (which was where the 1H EMA was positioned at the time), I decided to close my B. position. I felt that the EMA could easily push price back down. At D. I had reduced my loss on B. by about half and considering it was a small position, I was happy to take that loss and get out of this “bad” position.
If market would continue to go up then the profit from my C. position would cover that loss easily, but if market went back down then I would be so happy to be out of that position.
I secured my C. position at entry (i.e placed stop loss at entry).
Phew – I was ok and felt I had managed my risk. I was happy to take the small loss from my B. position and would not re-enter the market if my C. position got taken out.
Unfortunately, bulls could not break the neckline of the market pattern and when the candle at E. closed I knew my buy would not work out. I got taken out at entry and stayed out for the rest of the day.
Ultimately, I still made pips for the day as the profit from the position I carried over from Wednesday was slightly more than the loss I took for CPI.
It was a hectic day and I hope you did well!
Today, market looks choppy so far and I believe PPI will bring some more volatility to the table.
What could I have done differently:
Ultimately, market came up all the way to my B position, meaning that I could’ve closed at entry without taking a loss. If I had looked at the 5min chart, there was no weakness at the 1H 20 EMA level. This means I closed based on fear and not on price action. Next time, I need to remain even calmer and let the candles do the talking.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average