I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
Early morning bulls had push up even further.
Bullish trend is clear and I will be looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend”
However, on pulling the fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B1.) on the 4H TF and noting the pivot point – I note that the retracement levels are far down from were price currently is.
In this instance one must be careful because even a shallow retracement can be more than 1000 pips down and the pivot point is +- 2000 pips down.
So if you are like me and only put your daily trading budget into your account, one can easily bust your account by going in too early with a buy and then market retraces further.
Also, bulls pushed straight up on Friday with zero retracement, so the chance for a retracement today is high.
As the morning progressed, a small double top formed on the 1H TF. Neckline broke and price moved down.
The purple support line held seven long wick candles from breaking down (candle 1. and 7. are indicated). So even though sellers were pushing down hard, buyers held the support strong.
I entered a small buy at C. (20% of my usual position size) – Confirmations:
Candles sticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF indicating sellers were unable to push down
S&R – Support zone holding strong
Market pushed up 434 pips and as it came down again I closed half of that position at a small loss.
I limited my risk because I noted that market had touched the top trend line of the D ascending wedge and then moved bearish from there.
I wanted to protect my margin as a bigger retracement might take place and I would rather get in lower.
So now I had 10% of my usual position open.
I don’t regret this entry and still think it was a valid entry.
My plan was to open another small position at the 1H 20 EMA at E. (depending on the 5min price action in this zone and then another bigger % buy position at the 4H 0.382 retracement level (to me this is an area of confluence because there is an uptrend intersecting with this zone).
When market opened at 2:30pm GMT, price touched the top trend line at B2, but still closed in the green.
I entered another 20% buy as this candle closed (at D.) at 3pm GMT.
This was a hasty entry and one that I regret. I only entered because the 4H candle closed green and I felt like the purple support zone was holding strong on the 4H TF. I didnt think about a possible double top forming on the 4H (how silly am I).
But I should have stuck with my original plan because market came down almost immediately and a double top formed on the 4H.
As market came down, I realized my mistake and closed half of my position at D. to limit my loss in case of a bigger retracement.
So I had a small position at C. and at D. still open.
I entered as planned another small buy at E.
But market didn’t really move much. I suspect investors are waiting for Netflix earnings tomorrow.
So I am now in a predicament. The day is nearly done and I have 3 small buy positions open. If I look at how the candles are reacting to the 1H and 30 min EMAs, I don’t like what I see.
But there are long wick candles and a strong previous bulls reaction near the 0.382 retracement level.
Do I close and take my losses for the day? Or chance it and swing it till tomorrow?
It just feels wrong to close a buy on such a strong bull run…but then again, everyone is watching earnings with bated breath to see if the Nadaq highs are validated.
What could I have done differently:
Not entered at D.
But overall, even though the sell was the best move for the day, I don't regret my trading plan for today. I would not have entered a sell on such a bullish trend.
Maturity is starting to show in my risk management and my choice of position size in these more aggressive entries.
At least I kept it small!
Hope you had a great trading day and squeezed out some pips!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
Early morning bulls had push up even further.
Bullish trend is clear and I will be looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend”
However, on pulling the fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B1.) on the 4H TF and noting the pivot point – I note that the retracement levels are far down from were price currently is.
In this instance one must be careful because even a shallow retracement can be more than 1000 pips down and the pivot point is +- 2000 pips down.
So if you are like me and only put your daily trading budget into your account, one can easily bust your account by going in too early with a buy and then market retraces further.
Also, bulls pushed straight up on Friday with zero retracement, so the chance for a retracement today is high.
As the morning progressed, a small double top formed on the 1H TF. Neckline broke and price moved down.
The purple support line held seven long wick candles from breaking down (candle 1. and 7. are indicated). So even though sellers were pushing down hard, buyers held the support strong.
I entered a small buy at C. (20% of my usual position size) – Confirmations:
Candles sticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF indicating sellers were unable to push down
S&R – Support zone holding strong
Market pushed up 434 pips and as it came down again I closed half of that position at a small loss.
I limited my risk because I noted that market had touched the top trend line of the D ascending wedge and then moved bearish from there.
I wanted to protect my margin as a bigger retracement might take place and I would rather get in lower.
So now I had 10% of my usual position open.
I don’t regret this entry and still think it was a valid entry.
My plan was to open another small position at the 1H 20 EMA at E. (depending on the 5min price action in this zone and then another bigger % buy position at the 4H 0.382 retracement level (to me this is an area of confluence because there is an uptrend intersecting with this zone).
When market opened at 2:30pm GMT, price touched the top trend line at B2, but still closed in the green.
I entered another 20% buy as this candle closed (at D.) at 3pm GMT.
This was a hasty entry and one that I regret. I only entered because the 4H candle closed green and I felt like the purple support zone was holding strong on the 4H TF. I didnt think about a possible double top forming on the 4H (how silly am I).
But I should have stuck with my original plan because market came down almost immediately and a double top formed on the 4H.
As market came down, I realized my mistake and closed half of my position at D. to limit my loss in case of a bigger retracement.
So I had a small position at C. and at D. still open.
I entered as planned another small buy at E.
But market didn’t really move much. I suspect investors are waiting for Netflix earnings tomorrow.
So I am now in a predicament. The day is nearly done and I have 3 small buy positions open. If I look at how the candles are reacting to the 1H and 30 min EMAs, I don’t like what I see.
But there are long wick candles and a strong previous bulls reaction near the 0.382 retracement level.
Do I close and take my losses for the day? Or chance it and swing it till tomorrow?
It just feels wrong to close a buy on such a strong bull run…but then again, everyone is watching earnings with bated breath to see if the Nadaq highs are validated.
What could I have done differently:
Not entered at D.
But overall, even though the sell was the best move for the day, I don't regret my trading plan for today. I would not have entered a sell on such a bullish trend.
Maturity is starting to show in my risk management and my choice of position size in these more aggressive entries.
At least I kept it small!
Hope you had a great trading day and squeezed out some pips!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
