Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 14 Dec 2023
I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
Noted that Nasdaq rallied +- 1000 pips since market open on 14 Dec. Basically the continuation move from FOMC last night.
At the time of my analysis, a nice double top had formed on the 1H TF.
The bears broke the neckline of the double top and the market moved down +- the same distance as the height of the pattern.
Here the market found support 16610 level on the 1H. 30min EMA provided dynamic support in this area as well.
A double bottom formed on the 15min TF and I entered a buy on the break of the neckline (as indicated by the hand).
Confirmations:
- Market pattern: Double top profit target reached on 1H TF (ie the market moved +- the same distance as the height of the pattern)
- Market pattern: break of neckline of double bottom on 15min TF
- S&R: dynamic support by 30min EMA
- Previous day positive sentiment regarding FOMC
This was an aggressive move because if the market was going to retrace, the 4H fib level were FAR down (0.382 fib level is 730 pips down - thats a big draw down).
Watched price action carefully ad up until market open, I could see buyers preset in the market.
On market open bears testes down and bulls tested the highest 4H candle close and this session ended in a red doji candle.
I had a bad feeling when momentum of market open was not able to break the pink resistance line. If you watched the candles at 3pm GMT, you would have noted the market pushing a bit over the pink resistance line and then in the last seconds of the sessions bears dominated.
At this point I should have trusted my gut / bad feeling and put stop loss at entry, but alas. The green doji on the 4H threw me off.
Wanted to see how market would react to 1H EMA and the first red candle after the doji on the 1H closed above the 1H EMA, which gave me hope that the 1H EMA would hold as dynamic support.
But as it came down a second time and closed below the 1H EMA, I decided to close.
Took an 800 pips loss for the day.
What could I have done differently:
Trusted my gut on the formation of the 1H red doji and gotten out because my buy was aggressive in the first place.
Also the doji indicated that the market came to re-test the neckline of the double top on the 1H and failed (even with the momentum of market open) to break through, so a strong sell was in play.
Also a buy at all time highs is agressive.
Not getting back in today as the 4H EMA is so far down. I rather live to trade another day!
At least I still have my (partial position) buys open from the other day which is 3'500 pips up.
Hope you did better than me! :)
- Ultimately 1000 pips LOSS for the day.
- Got the market totally wrong and I am out for the rest of the day!
- No revenge or overtrading for me.
- Good luck if you are still trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
S&R = Support and resistance
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
Noted that Nasdaq rallied +- 1000 pips since market open on 14 Dec. Basically the continuation move from FOMC last night.
At the time of my analysis, a nice double top had formed on the 1H TF.
The bears broke the neckline of the double top and the market moved down +- the same distance as the height of the pattern.
Here the market found support 16610 level on the 1H. 30min EMA provided dynamic support in this area as well.
A double bottom formed on the 15min TF and I entered a buy on the break of the neckline (as indicated by the hand).
Confirmations:
- Market pattern: Double top profit target reached on 1H TF (ie the market moved +- the same distance as the height of the pattern)
- Market pattern: break of neckline of double bottom on 15min TF
- S&R: dynamic support by 30min EMA
- Previous day positive sentiment regarding FOMC
This was an aggressive move because if the market was going to retrace, the 4H fib level were FAR down (0.382 fib level is 730 pips down - thats a big draw down).
Watched price action carefully ad up until market open, I could see buyers preset in the market.
On market open bears testes down and bulls tested the highest 4H candle close and this session ended in a red doji candle.
I had a bad feeling when momentum of market open was not able to break the pink resistance line. If you watched the candles at 3pm GMT, you would have noted the market pushing a bit over the pink resistance line and then in the last seconds of the sessions bears dominated.
At this point I should have trusted my gut / bad feeling and put stop loss at entry, but alas. The green doji on the 4H threw me off.
Wanted to see how market would react to 1H EMA and the first red candle after the doji on the 1H closed above the 1H EMA, which gave me hope that the 1H EMA would hold as dynamic support.
But as it came down a second time and closed below the 1H EMA, I decided to close.
Took an 800 pips loss for the day.
What could I have done differently:
Trusted my gut on the formation of the 1H red doji and gotten out because my buy was aggressive in the first place.
Also the doji indicated that the market came to re-test the neckline of the double top on the 1H and failed (even with the momentum of market open) to break through, so a strong sell was in play.
Also a buy at all time highs is agressive.
Not getting back in today as the 4H EMA is so far down. I rather live to trade another day!
At least I still have my (partial position) buys open from the other day which is 3'500 pips up.
Hope you did better than me! :)
- Ultimately 1000 pips LOSS for the day.
- Got the market totally wrong and I am out for the rest of the day!
- No revenge or overtrading for me.
- Good luck if you are still trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
S&R = Support and resistance
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
- Ultimately 1000 pips LOSS for the day.
- Got the market totally wrong and I am out for the rest of the day!
- No revenge or overtrading for me.
- Good luck if you are still trading!