Hello Traders,
In our previous posts,linked in the description, we've been tracking the last zig-zag of this primary wave (B) as it ascends. Our calculated completion targets fall within the yellow area, coinciding with the bullish descending broadening wedge targets, as well as the point where Y equals Z. This symmetry between the two most recent zig-zags in this corrective wave has informed our decision to set our longs at 13800 and initiate short positions at 13863, anticipating the advent of wave (C) and a potential move towards lower lows.
But the price action and chart patterns integral to our proposed count are just pieces of the larger picture. Several other indicators also support the potential scenario we've described.
Interestingly, over recent months, we've observed an unusual market behavior. The market has been ascending, despite a dominant narrative of impending recession and rate hikes—factors that typically instill bearish sentiment in retail traders. This resilience of the market is even more noteworthy when we consider its divergence from the Money Supply M2. Historically, the stock market has acted as an oscillator of the Money Supply M2.
It's crucial that we view this resilience of the market as a potential strategy to mislead retail traders. When the narrative was bearish, the market not only held its ground but thrived, possibly catching many retail traders off-guard.
Adding another layer to our analysis, let's consider the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y). It's currently forming a bullish flag pattern, a positive signal that could potentially lead to higher yields. If this pattern confirms, it would be consistent with lower lows on indexes
In our upcoming posts, we'll explore these dynamics and their potential impact on market trends in the short to medium term. We'll also discuss what they mean for our trading positions. We keep in mind that FOMC today can be a good trigger for accelleration to the downside, but another wave up towards 14200 is still a concrete possibility.
Stay tuned for more updates, and trade safely in this volatile environment.
Bests
GMR
In our previous posts,linked in the description, we've been tracking the last zig-zag of this primary wave (B) as it ascends. Our calculated completion targets fall within the yellow area, coinciding with the bullish descending broadening wedge targets, as well as the point where Y equals Z. This symmetry between the two most recent zig-zags in this corrective wave has informed our decision to set our longs at 13800 and initiate short positions at 13863, anticipating the advent of wave (C) and a potential move towards lower lows.
But the price action and chart patterns integral to our proposed count are just pieces of the larger picture. Several other indicators also support the potential scenario we've described.
Interestingly, over recent months, we've observed an unusual market behavior. The market has been ascending, despite a dominant narrative of impending recession and rate hikes—factors that typically instill bearish sentiment in retail traders. This resilience of the market is even more noteworthy when we consider its divergence from the Money Supply M2. Historically, the stock market has acted as an oscillator of the Money Supply M2.
It's crucial that we view this resilience of the market as a potential strategy to mislead retail traders. When the narrative was bearish, the market not only held its ground but thrived, possibly catching many retail traders off-guard.
Adding another layer to our analysis, let's consider the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y). It's currently forming a bullish flag pattern, a positive signal that could potentially lead to higher yields. If this pattern confirms, it would be consistent with lower lows on indexes
In our upcoming posts, we'll explore these dynamics and their potential impact on market trends in the short to medium term. We'll also discuss what they mean for our trading positions. We keep in mind that FOMC today can be a good trigger for accelleration to the downside, but another wave up towards 14200 is still a concrete possibility.
Stay tuned for more updates, and trade safely in this volatile environment.
Bests
GMR
Comment:
Closed at 13650. Looking for wave v of c in last zigzag to 14200-14300
