I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
Even though we are at all-time highs, I keep my bias bullish.
So had my buy position C. open from yesterday.
Market moved up 380 pips from my position and I secured my trade once price was +-250 pips from my entry (this means I placed an actual stop loss at entry). As market moved down from 4. - I was out at entry.
Bulls were unable to break the 1H double top (pink) neckline at 4. (yesterday there were 3 attempts) and today’s fourth and final failed attempt led to the bears stepping in resulting in a market drop.
Although I wasn’t looking for a sell, the sell at E. makes sense because (confirmations for this sell):
Market pattern:
Double Top market in pink lines with a neckline tested 4 times
Double top (marked in orange lines) formed just above the pivot point on the 1H TF. Market broke the neckline and re-tested the neckline (pivot point) at E. and on failing to break, bears dominated.
Ascending wedge (marked by grey trend lines) formed on the D TF and broken bearish (at 2.&3.). Once officially broken, price usually moves the same distance as the height of the pattern. The market coming up to test the neckline of the 1H double top for the fourth time can also be seen as a retest of the ascending wedge.
Falling wedge (marked with green lines) + head and shoulders (easily seen on the 4H line chart) - as the day progressed a strong head and shoulders formed on the 4H TF. The neckline was sloping down, which makes it a more bearish market pattern.
Candle sticks: yesterday closed with a red D candle, warning of a possible retracement on a bigger timeframe.
I entered a buy at D - confirmations:
Market Pattern: This was the very limit, the tipping point, of a buy. If bulls were going to step in it would be to prevent the neckline of the 4H head and shoulders from breaking bearish. There was also going to be the re-test of the neckline of the orange Double top and I like being part of the re-test in the same direction as the overall trend, bullish in this case.
S&R: 4H EMA providing some dynamic support
Fib: This level represented yesterday’s 0.618 fib level – a strong fib level
Candlesticks: A doji formed on the 1H TF
This was a risky setup so I set a super tight mental stop loss, marked with the thick pink line. If candles broke this level Nasdaq would sell with momentum.
Bears dominated and I took a 200 pip loss.
I’m not sad about this, it was a calculated risk.
Ultimately market dropped like a stone, crushing my hopes of a Santa Rally and taking out my other position that I tried to swing till 3 Jan 2024.
I hope you caught the sell! It was a stunning ~2000 pip move and you would’ve ended the year with some nice profit.
What could I have done differently:
I’m happy with my risk management and how disciplined I was at securing my trades at entry. I would never have taken a sell because my bias was bullish, but we will see what happens in 2024!
All the best for the new year!
Hope all your (and my) trading dreams come true!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend”
Even though we are at all-time highs, I keep my bias bullish.
So had my buy position C. open from yesterday.
Market moved up 380 pips from my position and I secured my trade once price was +-250 pips from my entry (this means I placed an actual stop loss at entry). As market moved down from 4. - I was out at entry.
Bulls were unable to break the 1H double top (pink) neckline at 4. (yesterday there were 3 attempts) and today’s fourth and final failed attempt led to the bears stepping in resulting in a market drop.
Although I wasn’t looking for a sell, the sell at E. makes sense because (confirmations for this sell):
Market pattern:
Double Top market in pink lines with a neckline tested 4 times
Double top (marked in orange lines) formed just above the pivot point on the 1H TF. Market broke the neckline and re-tested the neckline (pivot point) at E. and on failing to break, bears dominated.
Ascending wedge (marked by grey trend lines) formed on the D TF and broken bearish (at 2.&3.). Once officially broken, price usually moves the same distance as the height of the pattern. The market coming up to test the neckline of the 1H double top for the fourth time can also be seen as a retest of the ascending wedge.
Falling wedge (marked with green lines) + head and shoulders (easily seen on the 4H line chart) - as the day progressed a strong head and shoulders formed on the 4H TF. The neckline was sloping down, which makes it a more bearish market pattern.
Candle sticks: yesterday closed with a red D candle, warning of a possible retracement on a bigger timeframe.
I entered a buy at D - confirmations:
Market Pattern: This was the very limit, the tipping point, of a buy. If bulls were going to step in it would be to prevent the neckline of the 4H head and shoulders from breaking bearish. There was also going to be the re-test of the neckline of the orange Double top and I like being part of the re-test in the same direction as the overall trend, bullish in this case.
S&R: 4H EMA providing some dynamic support
Fib: This level represented yesterday’s 0.618 fib level – a strong fib level
Candlesticks: A doji formed on the 1H TF
This was a risky setup so I set a super tight mental stop loss, marked with the thick pink line. If candles broke this level Nasdaq would sell with momentum.
Bears dominated and I took a 200 pip loss.
I’m not sad about this, it was a calculated risk.
Ultimately market dropped like a stone, crushing my hopes of a Santa Rally and taking out my other position that I tried to swing till 3 Jan 2024.
I hope you caught the sell! It was a stunning ~2000 pip move and you would’ve ended the year with some nice profit.
What could I have done differently:
I’m happy with my risk management and how disciplined I was at securing my trades at entry. I would never have taken a sell because my bias was bullish, but we will see what happens in 2024!
All the best for the new year!
Hope all your (and my) trading dreams come true!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average