Around two months ago I made an analysis on the stock markets' 2008 fractal where I compared the current bear market and oil prices to the prices back then. My notion was that the July > August bull move was likely a bear-market rally, which ended up being true. Please read the analysis below for a deeper dive into the analysis and the fractal.
As of yesterday, the NASDAQ has made new lows. In my view, this could likely be the trigger for a further and deeper sell-off than the ones we've seen before.
If we look at 2008, the NASDAQ fell around 49% after the third touch of the descending trend line. If we extrapolate that move to the current market, we can potentially fall all the way back towards the corona crash lows, erasing the last years of bullish progressions.
Albeit unlikely, a crash towards the corona bottom is certainly in the cards if we see a complete meltdown of the financial system. More likely would be a move towards the pre-corona all-time high, which would indicate another 11% downside. I'm betting on the latter.
If stocks will crash all the way to the corona bottom, it will be highly likely that crypto will crash as well. My worst case scenario for crypto would be a crash to <$10k, potentially even $6k. See below for my worst case scenario.
As of yesterday, the NASDAQ has made new lows. In my view, this could likely be the trigger for a further and deeper sell-off than the ones we've seen before.
If we look at 2008, the NASDAQ fell around 49% after the third touch of the descending trend line. If we extrapolate that move to the current market, we can potentially fall all the way back towards the corona crash lows, erasing the last years of bullish progressions.
Albeit unlikely, a crash towards the corona bottom is certainly in the cards if we see a complete meltdown of the financial system. More likely would be a move towards the pre-corona all-time high, which would indicate another 11% downside. I'm betting on the latter.
If stocks will crash all the way to the corona bottom, it will be highly likely that crypto will crash as well. My worst case scenario for crypto would be a crash to <$10k, potentially even $6k. See below for my worst case scenario.
Comment:
Do you think we will crash, or is the bottom in? Share your thoughts🙏🔥
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