NatGas - Siberian Express

"Arctic blast could break 200 records as historic 'Siberian express' brings cold front"
This is what I was waiting for.

We printed a daily key reversal today. I 'm posting this idea today because I think a long entry today or early tomorrow will be profitable in the following 2-3 weeks.

On the 11th of October we printed a DCL . The first daily cycle was 49 days long. Natty after the ICL usually has longer 70-75 days long dcl so this one was an exception.

After a short daily cycle the chance is high we get a longer daily cycle but even if we have a normal cycle it will be 70-75 days long.
The peak here should come between day 30 and 40 (or if this is a long cycle then day 45 is possible) so I'm expecting a daily cycle top between 25th November and 16th December.

Tomorrow we have the NatGas storage data. I think as the weather turned cold the data will be very bullish again and it will push natgas above 2,8 tomorrow or Friday.

If you take a look at the bigger picture :

you can see that the last few days' drop was just the backtest of the 200 SMA and the break of 2,9 easily can push Natgas up to 3,8 by middle of December if the weather turns cold.
The 50 and 200 MA is crossing over , and RSI left the oversold territory.

Nov 15
Comment: Shorts are covering for the weekend. The mild november end weather is built in the price. The weather surprise can support bulls only.
Nov 15
Comment: The bears are better to be cautious. You never know when you wake up for Natty 2.9$ ...
Nov 21
Comment: I’m waiting for EIA to announce a super bullish -100 BCF or lower storage withdrawal today.
Nov 22
Comment: AT the the cusp of the breakout.
Notice the difference between the downtrend into the DCL and this last 2 weeks downtrend.
Nov 22
Comment: The warm weather for the next 3 weeks priced in. Any cold weather and natgas will rally.
Nov 22
Nov 22
Nov 22
Comment: We had a nice Friday today with nearly 4% gains.
Day traders are covering ahead of the weekend ; I’m holding my long positions.
Nov 25
Comment: 45M volume in UGAZ.
Someone bought up everything above the support.
Hello, heres my opinion for UGAZ

bertcoin GuillaumeF
@GuillaumeF, I agree. There might be one more chance to get in under $10, then Natty takes off. I'd like to see an RSI divergence in NATGASUSD to prove the bottom. The mean daily cycle low is tomorrow on my charts, so the timing is good.
Hey Arpi, i like your charts and your ideas. Unfortunately we have huge supply and warm winter.

BlackFriday is for everything including Gas
Double down again. Ouch - Much deeper move than I expected. Welcome to Natty!
+2 Reply
Game for longs during this winter is over?
NG price in the US is ridiculously low. The study has shown that the breakeven price for production for most NG companies is within $2.5-3. At this point it's not economically viable for companies to enter investment in this commodity if prices stay at this level. Added more at $11.9 and I'm holding firm if it gets lower.
texasti89 texasti89
My position now is mainly in UGAZ
Are we still long with this deep drop? Bleeding blood here :) @chartwatchers @bertcoin
bertcoin mehmetgdogan
@mehmetgdogan, Yes I am. (IMHO as a pure technical/cyclist). Natty is in the 2nd daily cycle in a bull trend. It is well within 1 std deviation of the mean daily cycle low date (or a mid-cycle pause as Arpi is describing 11/22 post), and at the fib .5. So holding long and adding more between $2.5 and $2.4 in the next week makes sense to me. I will buy more if we get near 2.39 (fib .618), especially if I see a divergence on the RSI. With Natty (oil and gold too), I always buy 1/7th position, 2/7th position and 4/7th position so that if I get in a little early, I can correct with double and re-double power. Only buying (long) once is too difficult to find the low date.
+3 Reply
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