According to my chart, we finished the Grand Super Cycle back in Jan 2022.
The bull rally from Oct 22 has significant lower volume compared to wave A which is a typical characteristic of wave B. We might see the rally continue up to 90% of wave A, but with major earnings this week it seems very unlikely. I think this is the top.
Market fundamentals aren’t improving compared to 2022. In fact, the opposite is true. Economists expect the GDP to contract for Q4 2023. Revenues are down YoY across the board. Both the bond market and treasury yield curve are flashing recession signals. Two more rate hikes are likely and no cuts until 2025. Consumer demand is expected to go down in second half of this year. Student loans will resume in October and unemployment will likely go up in the future as well. I honestly can't see a case for hitting ATH.
I would probably exercise extreme caution here. Most retail investors get caught out around these levels for FOMO. At the very least I'd wait until NDQ breaks the 90% retracement of wave A with momentum before taking a long position.
I think we will see a 5 wave correction. See my chart for more regarding this.
This is pure speculation on my part and is not a financial advice. This is for education purposes only.
The bull rally from Oct 22 has significant lower volume compared to wave A which is a typical characteristic of wave B. We might see the rally continue up to 90% of wave A, but with major earnings this week it seems very unlikely. I think this is the top.
Market fundamentals aren’t improving compared to 2022. In fact, the opposite is true. Economists expect the GDP to contract for Q4 2023. Revenues are down YoY across the board. Both the bond market and treasury yield curve are flashing recession signals. Two more rate hikes are likely and no cuts until 2025. Consumer demand is expected to go down in second half of this year. Student loans will resume in October and unemployment will likely go up in the future as well. I honestly can't see a case for hitting ATH.
I would probably exercise extreme caution here. Most retail investors get caught out around these levels for FOMO. At the very least I'd wait until NDQ breaks the 90% retracement of wave A with momentum before taking a long position.
I think we will see a 5 wave correction. See my chart for more regarding this.
This is pure speculation on my part and is not a financial advice. This is for education purposes only.