The NASDAQ 100 will fall another 40% based on previous crashes
I don't believe the current 32% drawdown is the end of the pain for the
NDX
.
Given the macroeconomic climate, it makes more sense to compare the major crashes of 2000 and 2008. We could even see something more severe.
We can see that the current 30% or so it has fallen, does not nearly compare with the two most serious drawdowns (2000 and 2008) in either time or price.
Averaging percentage drawdown for 2000 and 2008, we can expect a drawdown of around 60-70%.
Averaging time from top until bottom for those two historic crashes, we can expect a drawdown length of around 700 days!
That means we're very unlikely to see the bottom until the at least the end of Q1 next year, most likely Q4.
The Dec 2018 low of ~6000 lines up very nicely with the historic average of the two major crashes.
Dollar cost averaging in during the marked green accumulation zone is my strategy.
NDX
. Given the macroeconomic climate, it makes more sense to compare the major crashes of 2000 and 2008. We could even see something more severe.
We can see that the current 30% or so it has fallen, does not nearly compare with the two most serious drawdowns (2000 and 2008) in either time or price.
Averaging percentage drawdown for 2000 and 2008, we can expect a drawdown of around 60-70%.
Averaging time from top until bottom for those two historic crashes, we can expect a drawdown length of around 700 days!
That means we're very unlikely to see the bottom until the at least the end of Q1 next year, most likely Q4.
The Dec 2018 low of ~6000 lines up very nicely with the historic average of the two major crashes.
Dollar cost averaging in during the marked green accumulation zone is my strategy.