NatGas (ng)...Some calling for $3 in 2023!! Not me!

NatGas going to $10 was one of the...wait for it.....'safest bets' that analysts were calling for just a few months ago. Europe's energy crisis ignited fears of a global contagion that all but ensured that all forms of energy would soar. So what went wrong? Wise ng companies used every opportunity to buy ng and add to storage ahead of the start of winter. Mother Nature accommodated with a very mild US fall season, and so far, an even milder early intro to winter. The already under-developed export facilities for LNG joined the party by, sadly, seeing one of its facilities explode and go offline until repairs are complete. And China's ongoing lockdown has bolstered the 'demand destruction' argument for lower everything-prices! So here we are reading (in a Barron's article entitled: The NG Boom Could Bust Before Coming Back) about expectations of $3 ng pxes in '23!!! I might be alone on this one, but I'll take the other side of that one! We're just one or two arctic blasts away from that $3 target being revised back up to $8 or $9!! A deeper dive into the weeds might alarm some folks as to how much ng development is likely to go on in the face of a regulation-heavy Administration, limited infrastructure to transport nationally and higher (and likely getting even higher) cost of capital. Part of me hopes the $3 target is, at least, approached, because it will make later dated call options struck at $7 or $8 real cheap to load up on!

(NOT ADVICE! JUST FOOD FOR THOUGHT AND DISCUSSION!)