moneymaking
Short

NGAS: BEARISH FLAG PATTERN FORMED, WAITING FOR BREAKOUT [4HR]!!!

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
387 23 7
Hello Traders,

Here we have a valid bearish flag pattern on FX:NGAS             and now we just have to wait for the breakout, probably to the downside. Flag patterns are also consolidation patterns, just like any other harmonic patterns ( cypher , bat, butterfly , crab , gartley ). This pattern is usually formed after a strong movement in price action. There are 3 main parts to this pattern: the flag pole, flag portion, and the continuation portion. After a strong movement, a strong selloff in this case, the market starts to consolidate and we expect the market to breakout in the direction of the flag pole, in our case to the downside.

After getting the breakout, the target is equal to the length of the flag pole, which is 315 pips for this setup. Also a key point to keep in mind is that, the longer the market stays within the consolidation zone (flag portion), the stronger the breakout to the downside will be. The invalidation point for this flag pattern is when we get a break AND close above the upper rising trend line of the flag portion. See the chart above for more details.

Please feel free to AGREE or DISAGREE with this idea by leaving a comment below. Hit that thumbs up button (top left corner of this chart) if you like the idea. Thank you everyone for all the SUPPORT that you have given me so far, I truly appreciate it. Good luck everyone :)

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Comment: UPDATE #1: Hello traders, we recently got breakout of the bearish flag pattern BUT it is not a convincing type of breakout. Need to stay cautious, don't need to rush into entering short. We need to see the market respect and stabilize beneath the breakout level, before opening a short position.

CHART:
snapshot
Comment: UPDATE #2: Hello Traders, we finally got a very favourable breakout of the bar flag pattern. All we need to do now is wait for a valid retest of the broken level before opening a short position :)

snapshot
Trade closed: target reached: Hello Traders, target has been hit. All positions are now closed for this setup :)
Hello, i would be carefull here because price is at historical lows. From my point of view flags works better when the trend is starting. I would but here on D1 chart but my broker does not have NGas.
+1 Reply
moneymaking FullTimeTrader
Hey mate, yeah I totally agree. Market is at it's lowest point. Will stay cautious. Thank you by the way, appreciate the advice :)
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possible pop to 2.60 followed by leg down
+1 Reply
moneymaking Market_Masta
Hey mate, yeah anything is possible. If it's the 2.60 level, then no short trade setup for me, lol :)
Reply
Agreed, looks weak for now...I wouldn't short here.
+1 Reply
moneymaking IvanLabrie
Yeah, no more power in bears, at least for now :)
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I'd sell now and add on retest. It might fly to target without you. But depends on your rules naturally.
+1 Reply
moneymaking IvanLabrie
Hey mate, yeah, I was looking at Yahia's chart and I think we not even get a retest of the broken level. Current price level is to low for me to sell. If we are able to get a retracement than I might get into it with good risk to reward, if not than I will just look for another opportunity. Don't need to chase the trade :)
Reply
Great short, I would hold it down untill 2.2
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
This has not bottomed yet, broke down from big support!
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Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
Horizontal support has been broken, no sign of reversal yet all eyes on channel support.
+1 Reply
moneymaking Yahia.Awes
Yeah thank you for the chart mate, now have a bigger picture in mind. Appreciate it :)
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes moneymaking
Anytime, don't listen too much to others you are doing great!
+1 Reply
moneymaking Yahia.Awes
Hehe, yeah thank you. But your comments and outlook helps a lot mate. Truly appreciate it :)
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes moneymaking
Thank you for your kind words, didn't know that it was that helpfull for you.. Some traders here change their mind on minutely basis and that is why I always look at the bigger picture before I go to smaller timeframes.
+1 Reply
moneymaking Yahia.Awes
Yeah, it truly does help. I follow the same strategy, I can't even look at time frames lower than 1 hour, sometimes I even feel uncomfortable on 1 hr and recently started feeling uncomfortable on 4 hr time frames as well. Not sure why :(

For now the minimum that I can drop down in time frames is 4 hr. I go from monthly to 4 hr. That's all. Allows me to keep my emotions under control and reduces my time looking at charts all day. I had a short trade open earlier on eurusd and i ended up watching that trade for up to 1 or 2 o clock, was about to go insane, LOL. Been trying to get rid of this bad habit by staying only on higher time frames.
Reply
moneymaking Yahia.Awes
Hey mate, actually I am still waiting for a valid retest of the broken flag pattern. The breakout is solid now just waiting for the valid retest. After seeing your chart, we might not be able to get a retest, let's wait and see what happens next :)
+2 Reply
Great analysis, very clean! Thank you!
+1 Reply
moneymaking smitheric1970
Hey smitheric, thank you for the kind words. Your welcome :)
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
This usually happens on good trades, you're proved right very quickly, and it doesn't give you a chance to think twice.
That's why I usually take a stab with a small entry in case the retest doesn't come.
+1 Reply
moneymaking IvanLabrie
Oh yeah mate, you are absolutely correct. I have seen that happen many times but I have also took some big losses due to chasing trades. I will stay on the conservative side for this one, since, as mentioned earlier by fulltimetrader, this market is at it's historic lows. So this move to the downside might be a trap for sellers and then maybe it could turn back to the upside. Anything is possible but I am not in a hurry to short on this just yet :)
Reply
Nice trade man! =D
+1 Reply
moneymaking Daniel.B
Hey man, how's it going? Great to hear from you again. Thank you for the kind words. Unfortunately I didn't took this trade because I was waiting for a valid retest of broken structure before going short. I knew this explosive move was likely to occur, but it just didn't fit my rules. I was also not interested in chasing it either, got many more opportunities on other instruments. Did you got into this trade? :)
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