moneymaking
Long

NGAS: BULLISH FLAG PATTERN FORMED, WAITING FOR BREAKOUT [4HR]!!!

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
176 22 10
a year ago
Hello Traders,

Here we have a valid bullish flag pattern on FX:NGAS-2.30% and now we just have to wait for the breakout, probably to the upside. Flag patterns are also consolidation patterns, just like any other harmonic patterns ( cypher , bat, butterfly , crab , gartley ). This pattern is usually formed after a strong movement in price action. There are 3 main parts to this pattern: the flag pole, flag portion, and the continuation portion. After a strong movement, a strong buying in this case, the market starts to consolidate and we expect the market to breakout in the direction of the flag pole, in our case to the upside.

After getting the breakout, the target is equal to the length of the flag pole, which is 429 pips for this setup. Also a key point to keep in mind is that, the longer the market stays within the consolidation zone (flag portion), the stronger the breakout to the upside will be. The invalidation point for this flag pattern is when we get a break AND close below the bottom falling trend line of the flag portion. Note that we also got a bullish flag pattern formed on the RSI as well. See the chart above for more details.

Please feel free to AGREE or DISAGREE with this idea by leaving a comment below. Hit that thumbs up button (top left corner of this chart) if you like the idea. Thank you everyone for all the SUPPORT that you have given me so far, I truly appreciate it. Good luck everyone :)

Follow me on Twitter as well: moneymaking2016
a year ago
Comment: UPDATE #1: Hello everyone, we just got the valid breakout to the upside in the bullish flag pattern. Now only need to WAIT for a VALID re-test of the broken level, before entering into this setup :)

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a year ago
Comment: UPDATE #2: Hello traders, we did get a VALID re-test of the broken level, thus staying on the sidelines for now. This breakout could potentially be a false breakout.

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a year ago
Comment: CORRECTION: We did NOT get a valid retest. Staying on the sidelines for now :)
a year ago
Comment: UPDATE #3: Hello everyone, we just got a 2nd valid breakout to the upside in the flag pattern. Now waiting for a VALID re-test of the broken level before entering into this setup :)

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DiverX PRO
a year ago
keep in mind that the flagpole was caused by contract rollover / expiration so since it wasn't formed with true market price action it kind of invalidates your hypothesis
+1 Reply
moneymaking DiverX
a year ago
Hey mate, oh yeah that seems to be the most likely reason. Thank you for pointing that out. But I will still keep it on my watch list :)
Reply
Tom_Killick moneymaking
a year ago
Moneymaking, I strongly advise you don't listen to that quote made by Diver. It is factually wrong in many areas. I assure that.

If price action left a mark, and you use technical analysis to trade, then this marking HAPPENED and trades can be made against it.
I strongly disagree with the last statement made by Diver.

Disclaimer: I don't care whether price goes up or down, i'm not going to analyse the chart either, But that sort of quote is not good advise to follow.

Tom
+1 Reply
DiverX PRO Tom_Killick
a year ago
Tom_Killick - please explain how the flagpole was created then outside of rollover/expiration or the bullish miss on EIA report - (especially if you look at the timeframe of the spike)?

Both of you should have noticed the lopsided HFT activity on UGAZ vs DGAZ over last several days - it's obvious when looking at volume SMA. The turn is coming but a slow grind upwards is more likely until real sustained cold weather shows up
+1 Reply
Tom_Killick DiverX
a year ago
This is all assumptions. "both of you should have noticed"
Well I bloody hope I did notice or I think the bank I work for will sack me quicker than a peasant without a rake...

"The turn is coming but a slow grind upwards is more likely until real sustained cold weather shows up..." That made me laugh for a start, since you're supporting his idea, ultimately... In regards to your quote that cracked me up: Please, turn your attention to the forecasts for much colder than expected weather in the Northern US throughout November. (Blowing out analysts forecasts completely)

Also please note NGS main demand line is November through March for US gas consumption. So this could be an explanation couldn't it also??

If you came out with that explanation at a financial company without looking at the bigger picture, probably look a bit silly.

In future. Don't patronise me please.

Tom
+1 Reply
Tom_Killick Tom_Killick
a year ago
DISCLAIMER: I claim NOT to know any future price and have not analysed NGAS at this point.

My point is that, you should always consider every variable, not just land on one thing and stick to it like a leech. It's not a good way to trade. I don't care if price goes up, or down.

Tom
+1 Reply
DiverX PRO Tom_Killick
a year ago
"I claim NOT to know any future price and have not analysed NGAS at this point."
It's exceedingly obvious you haven't done your homework so you're comments are irrelevant without stats or info to back it up. Your profile on TradingView doesn't show your really even trading commodities except for the occasional comment on crude which is a whole different ballgame as it's affected by worldwide elements NG isn't subject to, at least not yet. LNG might change all that
On top of that, chart patterns don't really work for NG - it's fundamentals by far that drive it one way or the other.
+1 Reply
Tom_Killick DiverX
a year ago
If fundamentals drive the markets, why would you disagree with long positions with the obvious information I just provided LMAO.

Not replying anymore anyway, it's obvious you're not really into this trading thing properly
+1 Reply
moneymaking DiverX
a year ago
The previously posted bearish flag pattern, did seemed to work quite well :)

NGAS: BEARISH FLAG PATTERN FORMED, WAITING FOR BREAKOUT [4HR]!!!
Reply
moneymaking Tom_Killick
a year ago
Hey Tom, Great to hear from you mate. Thank you for the great advice. I always appreciate it, I have specifically made a rule within my trading plan for dealing with these types of views. I NEVER ever allow someone else's views affect my trading plan, if I did than it would mostly be me gambling my capital away. That's not how trading works for me. I truly welcome all the negative AND positive comments/advice given to me on any setups, but I never let them affect me or my trading style. I only trade what I see in front of me.
Reply
DiverX PRO moneymaking
a year ago
sorry Moneymaking for all the drama of the convo below - didn't see that coming. Good luck to you, hope you make $$$ whichever way the wind blows on NG
+1 Reply
moneymaking DiverX
a year ago
Hey mate, yeah no problem. I never really had this type of conversation on any of my setups before. So seeing it 1st time under my profile, I got mixed emotions. So neutral overall. Thank you. I never take comments/advice personally, I look at them from a logical perspective. If it makes logical sense than I go on to do further analysis on it. Appreciate your comments/concerns :)
Reply
smitheric1970 PRO DiverX
a year ago
While it is absolutely true that the price action on the chart is a continuous chart rollover/spread price fix, the December contract does have the makings of a reversal. So, I'll have to agree the long call.
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+1 Reply
DiverX PRO smitheric1970
a year ago
believe my gentlemen I'm ready for a rally. My bigger question is how much upside we have this Winter given El Nino weather & oversupply concerns carrying over into next year. I want a massive cold snap / blizzard of epic proportions - that's in the cards for next Winter with La Nina that typically follows El Nino.
GLTA
+1 Reply
DiverX PRO
a year ago
and here's a unfiltered chart of recent NG price action without assertions for reference - http://invst.ly/e1ff
+1 Reply
you are the natty champ! nicely done again!
+1 Reply
moneymaking smitheric1970
a year ago
Hehe, Thank you mate :)
Reply
moneymaking smitheric1970
a year ago
Did you got the chance to enter into the gbpaud long trade setup (bullish bat)?
Reply
smitheric1970 PRO moneymaking
a year ago
I am not currently trading forex but you and Mr. Labrie have me looking strongly to start.
+1 Reply
moneymaking smitheric1970
a year ago
Hehe, alright mate :)
Reply
Very nice move.
+1 Reply
moneymaking IvanLabrie
a year ago
Thank you Ivan, appreciate it :)
Reply
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