Hello Traders,
today we will have a look to the midterm perspective of NIFTY50.
At 11171.55 on Jan 29, three days after the DOW topped, NIFTY50 even topped out and declined since than in a wave 4 of Minor degree or a wave ((iv)) of Minute degree.
So it may finished a Longrun advance within a wave 5, Minor degree or it is just a wave (i) of two degrees lower, Minuette degree!
For now the odds are not clear and as always this count can be wrong. But the steepness of the decline, which from my perspective is not done at all, tells me something bigger has finsihed up there!
So, please follow me at my journey to figure out if this is possible.
By observing the lenght in terms of time of wave 0-1 we take notice that it took 58bars=406 Days.
The assumed wave 3 (Minor) took 79 bars=553 Days.
Wave 5 took 100bars=700 Days.
By dividing the lenghts of Wave 3/1 (553/406) we get the FibTimeExt of 1.362!
Dividing the lenghts of Wave 5/3 (700/553) we get 1.27! Both are common FibExtension, here at timebasis!
And at least by dividing Wave 5/1 (700/406) we get the 1.72 FibTimeExt., which is also close to the 1.74Extension!
So I guess there is really a context in time and price which overall will fit the „Right Look“to the patterns created of Traders behavior in Terms of the Elliott Wave Theory!
But, unfortunally there is no message and projection to the coming price action within the next Days and Weeks!?
So lets have a look what happend since the important (?) Top at 11171.55! It took just 6 Days to decline to 10276.30 or 895.25 Points or a solid loss of 9.2%! The decline overall does not look done for now, so I think one more leg down is what to expect next.
The pullback from 10276.30 just retraced a bit more than .382 of the decline to 10631.65! So, either a Wave b within this pullback is done or close to do so, (by observing the last leg up it can be possible that this part develop into a Wave c up and completing the Wave B) and at next the second part of the deceline is what to occur! The pullback take nearly 3-times longer to develop as the decline did, this is amassive Timestretching signal, and indicating to my view, that a sharp and even quick decline is just around the corner. Notice that during this decline RSI dropped sharply from an overbought level at 82.3 to ~36 within 3 days, which is the steepest decline measured since many Month!
But where can be possible targets for that decline, if it happens?
So we have one at first, which is the 10078 level, where a Wave chas the .618 lenghts of wave a! Second one is stretching to 9736 area (marked with the two yellow rectangles)! At this zone a Wave iv of lesser degree is placed.
Both indicate that this pricetarget can be a common one, as well as did the lower boundary line which can be touched by Mondays/Tuesdays tradingsession.
More bearish potencial exists.
So in short term it will be really exiting whats next. Be prepared for the unexpected.
Have a great Week....
ruebennase
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!
Data by NSEIndia.com and moneycontrol.com!
today we will have a look to the midterm perspective of NIFTY50.
At 11171.55 on Jan 29, three days after the DOW topped, NIFTY50 even topped out and declined since than in a wave 4 of Minor degree or a wave ((iv)) of Minute degree.
So it may finished a Longrun advance within a wave 5, Minor degree or it is just a wave (i) of two degrees lower, Minuette degree!
For now the odds are not clear and as always this count can be wrong. But the steepness of the decline, which from my perspective is not done at all, tells me something bigger has finsihed up there!
So, please follow me at my journey to figure out if this is possible.
By observing the lenght in terms of time of wave 0-1 we take notice that it took 58bars=406 Days.
The assumed wave 3 (Minor) took 79 bars=553 Days.
Wave 5 took 100bars=700 Days.
By dividing the lenghts of Wave 3/1 (553/406) we get the FibTimeExt of 1.362!
Dividing the lenghts of Wave 5/3 (700/553) we get 1.27! Both are common FibExtension, here at timebasis!
And at least by dividing Wave 5/1 (700/406) we get the 1.72 FibTimeExt., which is also close to the 1.74Extension!
So I guess there is really a context in time and price which overall will fit the „Right Look“to the patterns created of Traders behavior in Terms of the Elliott Wave Theory!
But, unfortunally there is no message and projection to the coming price action within the next Days and Weeks!?
So lets have a look what happend since the important (?) Top at 11171.55! It took just 6 Days to decline to 10276.30 or 895.25 Points or a solid loss of 9.2%! The decline overall does not look done for now, so I think one more leg down is what to expect next.
The pullback from 10276.30 just retraced a bit more than .382 of the decline to 10631.65! So, either a Wave b within this pullback is done or close to do so, (by observing the last leg up it can be possible that this part develop into a Wave c up and completing the Wave B) and at next the second part of the deceline is what to occur! The pullback take nearly 3-times longer to develop as the decline did, this is amassive Timestretching signal, and indicating to my view, that a sharp and even quick decline is just around the corner. Notice that during this decline RSI dropped sharply from an overbought level at 82.3 to ~36 within 3 days, which is the steepest decline measured since many Month!
But where can be possible targets for that decline, if it happens?
So we have one at first, which is the 10078 level, where a Wave chas the .618 lenghts of wave a! Second one is stretching to 9736 area (marked with the two yellow rectangles)! At this zone a Wave iv of lesser degree is placed.
Both indicate that this pricetarget can be a common one, as well as did the lower boundary line which can be touched by Mondays/Tuesdays tradingsession.
More bearish potencial exists.
So in short term it will be really exiting whats next. Be prepared for the unexpected.
Have a great Week....
ruebennase
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!
Data by NSEIndia.com and moneycontrol.com!