India's NIFTY INDEX - Near the top, target 7800

NSE_EOD:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
1081 15 29
India's NIFTY             INDEX - Near the top formation from 8300-8640 - Look for downside to 8000-7800.

The NIFTY             Index chart has a remarkable similarity to the US stock market chart. The recent rally from the early September lows has nearly reached the top formation from July - August from the 8300-8640 level and it looks like the downside will be tested in the coming days and weeks.

I put several short entries in here and I don't follow this market day-to-day, but maybe I will now.

One of the rationale's is that the TIME AT MODE upside target reached and time expired. Now we see prices under a previous day's trading range. Some candlestick traders will label today a bearish "engulfing" pattern where you see a gap up above the previous bar's range, and then a close under the previous bar's low. Class signal, but you need to see confirmation and lower prices to make sure.

If prices go over today's high, then look for 8400-8520 to find resistance and new levels to sell short against. Sell breaking under a previous bar's low (at least hourly) so you aren't trying to guess or trying to pick the top. Sell weakness. It is counter-intuitive, but it protects you from yourself and your ego's need to be right.

Send me a message and look at my other charts so you can see how the "building blocks" method I call "TIME AT MODE" works. Essentially, it's about 5 easy steps.

1. Start a trend anytime the market has made a new high or new low over 5 bars.
2. If a new high, start the trend from the low.
3. Count the # of bars at the most frequent trading price.
4. Once prices are above the mode for an entire session, use the range of trading around the mode as your measuring stick. Count the # of bars at the mode and use that for your timing tool. Project the price range up or down FROM THE MODE. Count day #1 as the day that either "range expands away" from the mode, or spends an entire session above the mode (for an uptrend, or below the mode for a downtrend).
5. When the price target is reached, exit or use a trailing stop to your liking. When time expires, exit or use a trailing stop to your liking.


Trade closed: target reached: I saw a comment on this chart and realized I hadn't closed it yet after it reached the target. Time for a fresh look!
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Indeed a new chart on India would be great
Thank you sir great analysis , can you please post current trend of Indian NIFTY index
Thanks for the nice reply. Feel free to PM me if I don't get these messages or don't reply.
Spot on.
Hi Tim,

Can you please post your latest analysis on NIFTY ?

Thank you.
+1 Reply
2use Imprimus
double that
timwest Imprimus
It looks like a bottom is forming due to a number of reasons I can see on the retest of the base. I see range-expansions failing to follow through and I see reversal and exhaustion signs. I will look closer and see what I can determine for an entry. I'd suggest that averaging into any position over 3-5 days would be the best way to go in most markets to keep the initial risk lower.
+1 Reply
2use timwest
It indeed has a level where 2 shoulders were, so i was indeed wondering if you see signs of reversal. thanx for the update
Thanks. Near to your view..
Thanx for the model, enjoy world market analysis!
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