NIFTY - Mov(i)e "83"

83 is the popular movie on the famous victory of Indian Cricket. Another 50 days to go for the One Day World Cup. The left lower portion PIP graph is of USDINR. 83 has been the force kept pushing the dollar bull futile exercise, while narrative rupee bulls with chest thumping hops of deep down to the 80, drawing comfort of DXY failures (has not gone anywhere and in fact showing strong up trend against EM). The global cues are negative, Fitch warns of further down grade that include the big names also. China cuts the repo, confirms the deep-down issues, waives stamp duty on the real estate, episodes of Evergrande, and country garden continue to depress. Housing data today morning is sharply lower than the June numbers. Russia, rushes to hike the rate as rubble wobble. Turkey gets the rating upgrade is the lone positive but who cares. Not enough, Argentina dollarisation story makes rounds, as it has large CNY reserves. CNY tanks and near 7.30. In offshore market yesterday memes fly on rupee attaining independence at 83.47. What one needs to understand is rupee annualised depreciation of 2% is quite normal relative to 4-5%. For the USD denominated FII till yesterday the returns are flat for the last two years (based on INDEX), that can turn negative. FII numbers in the last couple of days are negative and looks that would continue be the case. July large SIP inflows are the buffer points to take away. The top left hand side PIP is the line graph showing HnS pattern, this calls for move towards 19060 or 18800-19000 range. The bottom Right hand side PIP shows evening star and potential 38.2% of retracement which also takes towards similar objective. The only question is will this be sharp move down or a measured one to expect. Both are on the cards. US Markets broken the strong supports while Europe indexes were the first to give away. Today Asia is red, Giftynifty down 80 points, one can expect 1% cuts to go. On the daily which is the main frame, trend line broken, the Monday candle is for sure not a hammer but bearish doji, decisive break today below 19380 confirms move towards low 19000. Shorts can continue and fresh shorts stops 19450.