sreebhashyam

NIFTY:- Plot thickens, thoughts thin!

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Much expected FOMC decision comes to pause. Equity moved more or less in green and higher, but in the end they tanked. No cuts for another one year rattle the markets, in addition to the median forecasts raising the rates by 50 bps. Dependency on incoming data, if one were to add the recent pick up in asset prices, surely points to higher. Yields further gallop, USD follow the suit and remain very known moves than known moves. FED sends clear message the JOB is not done. This is despite the fact and admission from FED that real rates are higher. The resolve to see inflation won't return until sees the end, remains negative to host of asset classes. Equity to hit the red button first and EM included. Elsewhere German PPI tanks, sending the inflationary outlook to the downward. Later in the day we have BOE rate decision, tomorrow BOJ in between you have South Africa rate decision. Every Central Banker moves remains the cues to understand what they see about the inflation. Brazil pauses. Bulls pause, yesterday moves are larger than expected and pushes the bears in the front. Clearly 19980 caps now while we stare around the 19500-600 area. Big picture if we break 19300 not the intended path though will bring more losses. Rush to take profit on mid and small caps are sufficient reasons to be on the guard. A bird in hand is two in the bush remains the happy approach. The enclosed graph is weekly and does not appear great, the simple appearance of negative divergence and market's reaction suggests that we are back to corrective moves. Still reckon not a U turn but caution needs a pat. For the day shorts below 19960 for move towards 19780.

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