Hello Traders,
the major indexes are showing some non-confirmations, which has started at the highs in August 2018. While NIFTY IT, the former leader in the bull-market, start a correction in a „three-down“, it has given the leaders-stab to NIFTYBank, which has made a new ATH on a closing and intraday basis this week. On the other hand, NIFTY 50 is close to top too the ATH at 11760, and the odds do increase that N50 has finished a wave „ii“ at 10004 and is showing some „1-2“ `s to the upside. NIFTY100 and NIFTY Next50 are lagging the advance of the latter indexes and pricing below there respective ATH`s!
This behavior has to eliminate at the shortterm, because otherwise the odds do increase that a major top is in place fir India indexes.
For a look to the short timeframe for N50,(here the 30 min chart), you can observe, that a clear „five-down“ has taken place, that indicate a change of trend for this index.
If this count is correct and play out the pattern, the next move is strong and clear to the downside.
By analysing the behavior, following facts are clear to observe at chart:
1. the move to the downside is a clear „five-down“,
2. every rule in EW terms has been accepted, and you will not see overlapping waves, or wave „three“ is the shortest, neither wave 2 or wave "4" has touched the start of wave „one“ or wave "two";
3. the countertrend fromt the wave „5“ low is a clear „three-up“ which developed into an „a-b-c“-pattern and retraced so far the 0.618Fibonacci on a closing basis; it is done or close to do so;
4. the correction within wave „4“ has retraced a Fibonacci of 0.382, which is the most common target area in Fibonacci relations, and fulfilled at this way the rules of EW terms;
5. on the way down, N50 has closed the open gap, that was created by the closing and opening bell as of March 29- April 01, 2019!
6. so, this could be interpret as an „exhausting-gap“;
7. a rise above the 0.786 Fibonacci on an hourly closing basis will decrease this view and I will check the odds for an extending advance.
So, overall, the level to observe is the high at 11756.53, while a decline below the 11558 will open the door to another leg of decline that will bring N50 at least to the zone of ~11500, depending of where and if this decline start.
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
the major indexes are showing some non-confirmations, which has started at the highs in August 2018. While NIFTY IT, the former leader in the bull-market, start a correction in a „three-down“, it has given the leaders-stab to NIFTYBank, which has made a new ATH on a closing and intraday basis this week. On the other hand, NIFTY 50 is close to top too the ATH at 11760, and the odds do increase that N50 has finished a wave „ii“ at 10004 and is showing some „1-2“ `s to the upside. NIFTY100 and NIFTY Next50 are lagging the advance of the latter indexes and pricing below there respective ATH`s!
This behavior has to eliminate at the shortterm, because otherwise the odds do increase that a major top is in place fir India indexes.
For a look to the short timeframe for N50,(here the 30 min chart), you can observe, that a clear „five-down“ has taken place, that indicate a change of trend for this index.
If this count is correct and play out the pattern, the next move is strong and clear to the downside.
By analysing the behavior, following facts are clear to observe at chart:
1. the move to the downside is a clear „five-down“,
2. every rule in EW terms has been accepted, and you will not see overlapping waves, or wave „three“ is the shortest, neither wave 2 or wave "4" has touched the start of wave „one“ or wave "two";
3. the countertrend fromt the wave „5“ low is a clear „three-up“ which developed into an „a-b-c“-pattern and retraced so far the 0.618Fibonacci on a closing basis; it is done or close to do so;
4. the correction within wave „4“ has retraced a Fibonacci of 0.382, which is the most common target area in Fibonacci relations, and fulfilled at this way the rules of EW terms;
5. on the way down, N50 has closed the open gap, that was created by the closing and opening bell as of March 29- April 01, 2019!
6. so, this could be interpret as an „exhausting-gap“;
7. a rise above the 0.786 Fibonacci on an hourly closing basis will decrease this view and I will check the odds for an extending advance.
So, overall, the level to observe is the high at 11756.53, while a decline below the 11558 will open the door to another leg of decline that will bring N50 at least to the zone of ~11500, depending of where and if this decline start.
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!