NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jun20-23)
NQ made and explosive move thought the 1.13 Fib X closing at the 1.272 Fib X. As earnings season has wrapped up the main catalyst this shortened trading week will be speeched from Fed Head including Powell on Wednesday and Thursday. NQ is solidly trading the bull zone but is extended and due for a pause or pull back. The first major dip should be buyable.
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 3.78% gain last week after trading in a range of 740 points.
• NQ re-tested the HTF 618 fib again then blew through 1.13 Fib X resistance.
• NQ only 10.70% off its ATH.
• Priced close at the 1.272 Fib extension which is now first resistance.
• Every sector closed green on the week except XLE which closed down 0.58%. Strongest sectors were XLK, XLB & XLY
• Market breadth has improved but Mega caps continued to lead the market higher.
• More than half (52%) of all stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Momentum ETFs and algos are now set to buy.
• Long term bias is now bullish but, market is extended and due for a pull back.
• Still potential for NQ to re-test the Aug 16th breakout point.
• VIX is in the TRIM zone (13.53)
• Buy the Dip has returned as the ATH is now in play.
• US Market is closed Monday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday US Housing Starts, Fed’s Bullard, Barr & Williams speak
Wednesday Can Retail Sales, Fed’s Powell, Goolsbee & Mester speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Home sales, EIA Crude & Fed’s Powell, Bowman, Waller & Mester speak
Friday US S&P Manufacturing PMI flash, Fed’s Mester, Bostic & Bullard speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday FDX
Wednesday KBH
Thursday CAN, DRI
Friday KMX
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above the 1.13 Fib Extension
NQ above the longer term 618 Fib RT
EMAs are stacked
Market breadth is improving
The longer term 886 Fib retracement is now the price magnet
In a technical bull market. (Above LT 618 Fib RT)
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
Buy the dip is back in style
BEARISH NOTES
Potential hard reversal at the 1.27 Fib X / 786 Fib Retracement
MEGA cap stocks are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 14 (sell zone)
Aug 16th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head talk
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon (lower volumes)
Both RSI & Stoch 5,1 are Overbought
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 3.78% gain last week after trading in a range of 740 points.
• NQ re-tested the HTF 618 fib again then blew through 1.13 Fib X resistance.
• NQ only 10.70% off its ATH.
• Priced close at the 1.272 Fib extension which is now first resistance.
• Every sector closed green on the week except XLE which closed down 0.58%. Strongest sectors were XLK, XLB & XLY
• Market breadth has improved but Mega caps continued to lead the market higher.
• More than half (52%) of all stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Momentum ETFs and algos are now set to buy.
• Long term bias is now bullish but, market is extended and due for a pull back.
• Still potential for NQ to re-test the Aug 16th breakout point.
• VIX is in the TRIM zone (13.53)
• Buy the Dip has returned as the ATH is now in play.
• US Market is closed Monday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday US Housing Starts, Fed’s Bullard, Barr & Williams speak
Wednesday Can Retail Sales, Fed’s Powell, Goolsbee & Mester speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Home sales, EIA Crude & Fed’s Powell, Bowman, Waller & Mester speak
Friday US S&P Manufacturing PMI flash, Fed’s Mester, Bostic & Bullard speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday FDX
Wednesday KBH
Thursday CAN, DRI
Friday KMX
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above the 1.13 Fib Extension
NQ above the longer term 618 Fib RT
EMAs are stacked
Market breadth is improving
The longer term 886 Fib retracement is now the price magnet
In a technical bull market. (Above LT 618 Fib RT)
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
Buy the dip is back in style
BEARISH NOTES
Potential hard reversal at the 1.27 Fib X / 786 Fib Retracement
MEGA cap stocks are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 14 (sell zone)
Aug 16th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head talk
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon (lower volumes)
Both RSI & Stoch 5,1 are Overbought
Comment:
$NQ_F filled the overnight gap perfect this morning rejecting sharply off the 1.272 Fib which is resistance until its not. Treating that level as my bull/bear line intraday. Above it looking for a move back to recent highs. Below potential deeper pull back to the 1.13 fib X. Current 30 minute trend is down.
Comment:
$NQ_F So far the 1.272 has held as resistance. Price continued lower today now finding support at the descending trendline at the daily 9 ema. Use the 30 min ema cloud plus the 55 ema for intraday trend. If the 9 ema holds look for a move back to the 1.272. If it fails look for a potential move back down to the green box.
Comment:
$NQ_F The daily 9 ema gave us a playable bounce back toward the 1.272. The 1.272 was not reached as price rejected lower. This puts a test of the 21 ema and 1.13 Fib X in play to the downside. 1st support is recent low. Second support is the 21 ema.
