NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jun12-16)
Opening the week at resistance just above the 1.13 Fib X. A break of recent highs would be very bullish and put the top of the red box in play. Expect some back and forth price action with CPI, PPI data due out the next few days as well as FOMC rate decision. I personally will be in scalp mode up to FOMC.
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a -0.16% loss last week after trading in a range of 399 points.
• NQ re-tested the HTF 618 fib last week successfully.
• NQ only 13.88% off its ATH.
• 1.13 Fib extension remains first resistance. The 1.272 Fib extension is the second resistance.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLY, XLU & XLE. Weakest were XLK & XLP
• Market had some rotation from technology to utilities.
• Currently rally led by MEGA cap tech stocks must be supported by broader market for trend continuation.
• Almost half (49%) of all stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Earnings wrap up this week with reports from ORCL, LEN, ADBE & KR
• CPI, PPI and FOMC Rate decision are this week biggest potential market moving econ events
• Still potential for NQ to re-test the Aug 16th breakout point.
• Buy the Dip may return as the ATH is now in play.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday NY Feb Inflation Expectations
Tuesday US CPI & OPEC Monthly Report
Wednesday US PPI, EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Rate Decision + Press Conference
Thursday ECB Rate Statement, US Initial Jobless Claims & US Retail Sales & NY Fed Manufacturing
Friday Fed’s Bullard & Waller speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ORCL
Tuesday Nothing notable
Wednesday LEN
Thursday ADBE, KR
Friday Nothing notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above the Aug 16th Pivot
NQ above the longer term 618 Fib RT
EMA are stacked
Market breadth is improving
Potential positive reaction to CPI data & FOMC rate decision
Now in a technical bull market.
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
BEARISH NOTES
Potential hard reversal at the 618 Fib RT/ 1.13 Fib X
MEGA cap stock are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 15 (sell zone)
Aug 16th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to CPI data & FOMC rate decision
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon ( lower volumes)
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a -0.16% loss last week after trading in a range of 399 points.
• NQ re-tested the HTF 618 fib last week successfully.
• NQ only 13.88% off its ATH.
• 1.13 Fib extension remains first resistance. The 1.272 Fib extension is the second resistance.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLY, XLU & XLE. Weakest were XLK & XLP
• Market had some rotation from technology to utilities.
• Currently rally led by MEGA cap tech stocks must be supported by broader market for trend continuation.
• Almost half (49%) of all stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Earnings wrap up this week with reports from ORCL, LEN, ADBE & KR
• CPI, PPI and FOMC Rate decision are this week biggest potential market moving econ events
• Still potential for NQ to re-test the Aug 16th breakout point.
• Buy the Dip may return as the ATH is now in play.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday NY Feb Inflation Expectations
Tuesday US CPI & OPEC Monthly Report
Wednesday US PPI, EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Rate Decision + Press Conference
Thursday ECB Rate Statement, US Initial Jobless Claims & US Retail Sales & NY Fed Manufacturing
Friday Fed’s Bullard & Waller speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ORCL
Tuesday Nothing notable
Wednesday LEN
Thursday ADBE, KR
Friday Nothing notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above the Aug 16th Pivot
NQ above the longer term 618 Fib RT
EMA are stacked
Market breadth is improving
Potential positive reaction to CPI data & FOMC rate decision
Now in a technical bull market.
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
BEARISH NOTES
Potential hard reversal at the 618 Fib RT/ 1.13 Fib X
MEGA cap stock are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 15 (sell zone)
Aug 16th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to CPI data & FOMC rate decision
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon ( lower volumes)
Comment:
$NQ_F Breaking above recent highs. If it can maintain momentum upside target would be top of red box. Difficult to read due to data out tomorrow. Best to scalp moves as they are presented.
Comment:
$NQ_F Broke the recent highs yesterday and is responding positively to the CPI data. Still need to see how price reaction on the cash open. Current upside target is the top of the red box.
Comment:
$NQ_F all dips continue to be bought up even going into FOMC. Looks like a potential final bullish burst into 1.272 Fib X. Personally scalping the move higher to limit risk. I am expecting resistance once target is achieved.
Comment:
$NQ-F Dip buyers continue to be relentless. As AAPL has broken to new highs with
NVDA
the Megas look to power this to my upside target at 1.272. Price is extended so going heavy long here may not be a good idea. However, as long as the megacaps are making new highs the bias is up.
NVDA
the Megas look to power this to my upside target at 1.272. Price is extended so going heavy long here may not be a good idea. However, as long as the megacaps are making new highs the bias is up.
Comment:
$NQ_F The explosive move yesterday took price to the 1.272 X target then above it. Attempts at bullish cont this morning has been rejected so far. Expecting resistance here. Bearish below the red box is the play. A move above todays high may take us to the 786 long term fib. May consolidate at this level for a while.
