NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels (Feb13-17)
The Nasdaq lost 2.26% last week and traded within a range of 574 points. Despite closing above the 21/55 emas and 200 sma , it finished the week below the 9 ema . The NQ remained above the long term downward trendline but fell back to the pivot high from December 12th. The Nasdaq is currently pulling back but remains in an overall uptrend from the October 13th low. The only sector that posted a week gain was XLE , with a 4.94% increase. Bulls are hoping for price to stay above the descending trendline and the 200 SMA , while bears want to see a retrace of more than 50% of the recent upward move from January 6th. This week will be significant for economic reports, with CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wednesday, and PPI on Thursday. Additionally, there will be a heavy schedule of Fed heads speaking throughout the week.
These are the key levels for the week. There are more fibs in play but I have not put them on the chart to start the week to keep things clean and simple. As the week progresses and price gives us clues I will update the charts as usual with the most important levels to watch. For now, the recent high above and the 200sma / trendline below are the main levels to be concerned with. The Dec 12th high will be my near-term bull/bear line.
Please like, comment and share my work. Thankyou and have a great trading week.
QUICK SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 2.26% lost last week after trading in a range 574 points
• Price closed above the 21/55 emas & 200 sma , but closed below the 9 ema
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline, but fell back to the Dec 12th pivot high
• NQ is pulling back near term, but remains in a longer term uptrend from the Oct 13th low
• The only sector to post a positive week was XLE gaining 4.94%
• Bulls want to see price stay above the descending trend line and the 200 SMA
• Bears want to see price retrace more than 50% of the recent up move from the Jan 6th low
• Big week of economic reports ahead featuring CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wed & PPI on Thurs.
• Heavy slate of Fed heads speaking through out the week
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday USD CPI & 4 Fed Heads speak
Wednesday US Retail Sales, NY Fed manufacturing, US Industrial Prod. & EIA Crude data
Thursday US Housing starts, US PPI & US Initial Jobless Claims + Fed heads speak
Friday Fed’s Barkin speaks
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ANET , PLTR , SEDG , TDC
Tuesday ABNB, AKAM , BTU , CLF , DVN , KO, MAR, QSR , SU, TRIP, ZTS
Wednesday BIIB , CSCO , GOLD , KHC , MFC , MRO , NTR , OC , RBLX , ROKU, SGEN , SHOP, TTD , TWLO , Z
Thursday AEM , AMAT, CROX , CVE , DASH, DDOG , DKNG , DLR , ED, H, HAS, TOST
Friday DE
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above 21/55 emas and 200 SMA
NQ above descending trend line
Earning momentum
Potential positive reaction to CPI & PPI
Potential positive reaction to Fed Head speeches
Closed at 12th high so higher high intact
Stoch (5,1) Oversold
Defensive sectors XLU , XLV , XLP showed slight relative strength
BEARISH NOTES
NQ closed below 9 ema
NQ rejected at the HTF 382 Fib RT
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing of longer term support
Potential negative reaction to CPI & PPI
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head speeches
Potential 200 SMA price magnet
Risk on trade weakened last week with p/b in XLC & XLY
These are the key levels for the week. There are more fibs in play but I have not put them on the chart to start the week to keep things clean and simple. As the week progresses and price gives us clues I will update the charts as usual with the most important levels to watch. For now, the recent high above and the 200sma / trendline below are the main levels to be concerned with. The Dec 12th high will be my near-term bull/bear line.
Please like, comment and share my work. Thankyou and have a great trading week.
QUICK SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 2.26% lost last week after trading in a range 574 points
• Price closed above the 21/55 emas & 200 sma , but closed below the 9 ema
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline, but fell back to the Dec 12th pivot high
• NQ is pulling back near term, but remains in a longer term uptrend from the Oct 13th low
• The only sector to post a positive week was XLE gaining 4.94%
• Bulls want to see price stay above the descending trend line and the 200 SMA
• Bears want to see price retrace more than 50% of the recent up move from the Jan 6th low
• Big week of economic reports ahead featuring CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wed & PPI on Thurs.
• Heavy slate of Fed heads speaking through out the week
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday USD CPI & 4 Fed Heads speak
Wednesday US Retail Sales, NY Fed manufacturing, US Industrial Prod. & EIA Crude data
Thursday US Housing starts, US PPI & US Initial Jobless Claims + Fed heads speak
Friday Fed’s Barkin speaks
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ANET , PLTR , SEDG , TDC
Tuesday ABNB, AKAM , BTU , CLF , DVN , KO, MAR, QSR , SU, TRIP, ZTS
Wednesday BIIB , CSCO , GOLD , KHC , MFC , MRO , NTR , OC , RBLX , ROKU, SGEN , SHOP, TTD , TWLO , Z
Thursday AEM , AMAT, CROX , CVE , DASH, DDOG , DKNG , DLR , ED, H, HAS, TOST
Friday DE
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above 21/55 emas and 200 SMA
NQ above descending trend line
Earning momentum
Potential positive reaction to CPI & PPI
Potential positive reaction to Fed Head speeches
Closed at 12th high so higher high intact
Stoch (5,1) Oversold
Defensive sectors XLU , XLV , XLP showed slight relative strength
BEARISH NOTES
NQ closed below 9 ema
NQ rejected at the HTF 382 Fib RT
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing of longer term support
Potential negative reaction to CPI & PPI
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head speeches
Potential 200 SMA price magnet
Risk on trade weakened last week with p/b in XLC & XLY
Comment:
Here is a look on the 4H with a few more levels now that the cash market is open. NQ has found continued support at the Dec 12th high. If support is broken look to the levels marked with green arrows below as targets/support. If bullish momentum continues look to the levels marked with red arrows as targets/resistance.
Comment:
NQ Hit the 1st upside target and then rejected on the CPI data. Working the 9 ema zone with support at the Dec 12th high below. NQ need to hold the Dec high to maintain bullish momentum. Below the Dec high 200 sma is in play.
Comment:
Managed to hold the 9 ema after some very volatile price moves. Retracing 300 points back and forth 4 times. Very chopping once again this morning although leaning slightly more bullish than bearish as it is holding above the emas on the 30 min and the downward trendline for now. May chop all day as the market is undecided right now.
Comment:
Here's a look on the 30 minute for more context.
Comment:
Took a while today, but NQ held the trendline and resolved to the upside hitting the second bullish target (see Feb 13th post). Feb 2nd high is the next target. The daily 9 ema is first support.
Comment:
Rejected sharply of the resistance level (382 Fib) and moved back down overnight. PPI came in hot accelerating the bearish move. The 9 ema has already been hit as well as the trendline. If support fail here look to the Dec 12th high and 200 sma for targets and support below.
Comment:
Support at the 9 ema lasted all of 6 minutes then price broke down further. Now sitting of the Dec 12th high target with the 200 sma within range if the 21 ema is broken. Very bearish price action after the late day melt down yesterday.
