NQ/QQQ Weekend Levels (Feb6-10)
The Nasdaq posted a 3.29% gain last week and closed above the 9/21/55 moving averages and the 200 simple moving average. It also closed above the long-term downward trendline and the December 12th pivot high. The Nasdaq has now made a higher weekly high, signaling a potential trend change. The Nasdaq is currently 19% higher than the October 13th low and 24% below its all-time high. The strongest sectors last week were XLC, XLK, and XLY, while the weakest were XLE and XLU. The earnings season continues this week with reports from companies such as ENPH, RCL, UBER, PEP, LYFT, and others. This week will be light on economic data, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday. The bullish momentum may stall as the price has run into resistance at the long-term 382 Fibonacci retracement level. A pullback into the December high, trendline, and 200 moving average is possible. There is potential for hawkish talk from Fed heads this week which may dampen the frothy market.
• Nasdaq posted a 3.29% gain last week after trading in a range 1055 points
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline and above the Dec 12th pivot high
• NQ has now made a higher weekly high signalling potential trend change.
• The Nasdaq is now 19% above the Oct 13th low and 24% off the ATH
• Strongest sectors last week were XLC, XLK & XLY. Weakest were XLE & XLU
• Earnings continue this week including reports from ENPH, RCL, UBER, PEP, LYFT, NET, HTZ, UA , ABBV & L
• Light week for econ data but, Fed’s Powell speaks on Tuesday
• Bullish momentum may stall as price has run into the long term 382 Fib RT (Bottom of HTF Neutral Zone)
• A pull back into the Dec high, trendline & 200 sma is possible
• Potential hawkish talk from Fed heads this week to dampen the frothy market
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US International Trade & Fed’s Powell Speaks
Wednesday EIA OIL Inventory, Fed’s Kashkari & Waller speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ATVI, L, LEG, PINS, SWKS, TSN, TTWO
Tuesday CARR, BP, ENPH, FTNT, HTZ, KKR, RCL, WU
Wednesday BAM, CDAY, COTY, CVS, DIS, EMR, ETN, HOOD, GT, MAT, MGM, TEVA, UA, UBER, XPO, YUM
Thursday ABBV, AZN, BE, BN, DOCS, EXPE, HLT, K, LYFT, NET, PEP, PYPL, QLYS, RL, THC, TU
Friday ENB, FTS, GPN, MGA, NWL, WPC
BULLISH NOTES
Above 9/21/55 emas
Above 200 sma
SPX completed Golden Cross
Above LT downward trendline
NQ has officially made a higher weekly high
Possible positive reaction to Powell’s speech
Continuation of short covering
Rotation away from defensive sectors
Dropping USD & yields
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at key resistance (HTF 382 Fib RT)
Potential negative reaction to Powell speech
Pull back possible after large run up
200 sma & trendline likely to be re-tested
Stoch (5,1) is oversold
Potential reversal higher in USD & yields
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Global shock event (Tension with China + Ukraine war)
• Nasdaq posted a 3.29% gain last week after trading in a range 1055 points
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline and above the Dec 12th pivot high
• NQ has now made a higher weekly high signalling potential trend change.
• The Nasdaq is now 19% above the Oct 13th low and 24% off the ATH
• Strongest sectors last week were XLC, XLK & XLY. Weakest were XLE & XLU
• Earnings continue this week including reports from ENPH, RCL, UBER, PEP, LYFT, NET, HTZ, UA , ABBV & L
• Light week for econ data but, Fed’s Powell speaks on Tuesday
• Bullish momentum may stall as price has run into the long term 382 Fib RT (Bottom of HTF Neutral Zone)
• A pull back into the Dec high, trendline & 200 sma is possible
• Potential hawkish talk from Fed heads this week to dampen the frothy market
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US International Trade & Fed’s Powell Speaks
Wednesday EIA OIL Inventory, Fed’s Kashkari & Waller speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ATVI, L, LEG, PINS, SWKS, TSN, TTWO
Tuesday CARR, BP, ENPH, FTNT, HTZ, KKR, RCL, WU
Wednesday BAM, CDAY, COTY, CVS, DIS, EMR, ETN, HOOD, GT, MAT, MGM, TEVA, UA, UBER, XPO, YUM
Thursday ABBV, AZN, BE, BN, DOCS, EXPE, HLT, K, LYFT, NET, PEP, PYPL, QLYS, RL, THC, TU
Friday ENB, FTS, GPN, MGA, NWL, WPC
BULLISH NOTES
Above 9/21/55 emas
Above 200 sma
SPX completed Golden Cross
Above LT downward trendline
NQ has officially made a higher weekly high
Possible positive reaction to Powell’s speech
Continuation of short covering
Rotation away from defensive sectors
Dropping USD & yields
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at key resistance (HTF 382 Fib RT)
Potential negative reaction to Powell speech
Pull back possible after large run up
200 sma & trendline likely to be re-tested
Stoch (5,1) is oversold
Potential reversal higher in USD & yields
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Global shock event (Tension with China + Ukraine war)
Comment:
***Stoch(5,1) is Overbought not oversold.
Comment:
Look at the Golden Cross on SPX
Comment:
Longer term the momentum is bullish but NQ is biased lower this morning after double topping at the 382 fib on Friday. Price may still want to fill the overnight gap but it feels like a re-test of the Dec 12th high is likely. Remember that Powell is speaking tomorrow and the market will be undecided into that speech.
Comment:
NQ continued its controlled pull back yesterday finding support at the shorter term 618 Fib RT where it continues to chop back and forth on the lower time frames. Powell and 12 est.
Comment:
Lower time frame look. Caught between 12600 and 12450.
Comment:
The initial short covering pop was immediately sold into. Dec 12th test likely .
Comment:
The post Powell move was incredible. We did not get the break as I expected down to the Dec high. Instead price retraced the down move and closed back at the higher. This was a very bullish scenario, but overnight price sold off again and is now trading down toward the 50% point of Tuesday's move. If price cannot hold the 50% I would expect more down side. Unpredictable two way action right now so patience is recommended.
Comment:
Well I said unpredictable. Sold through the 50% of the up move yesterday an did see some follow through but has bounced again off the LTF 618 ( see above charts as well). This is a case of dueling fibs. We have support at the 618 below (plus 9 ema) and resistance at the HTF 382. Given the violent moves between the two I would expect a big move in either direction when one side breaks.
Comment:
Back through the 50% which has become my bull/bear line. Expecting support at the 618 again. If not the levels below are marked for lower targets. Move back to 200 possible.
Comment:
618 broke so move to 9 ema was in play. Tapping that level now. If it breaks look for move down to Dec 12th high.
Comment:
The battle royal was lost by the 618 level so the break form consolidation was down. The 9 ema target was hit as well as the Dec 12th high. Price has now confirmed a double top. If support is not found at the Dec 12th level the DT measurement takes it down to re-test the trendline/200 sma area.
