NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels (Jan30-Feb3)
Last week, the Nasdaq posted a significant gain of 4.67%, trading within a range of 668 points. The price closed above the 9/21/55 emas and 200 sma, continuing the bullish trend. The Nasdaq also finished the week above the long-term downward trendline, coming within 117 points of the December 12th pivot high. The Nasdaq is now 15% above its October 13th low. The aggressive sectors of XLY, XLK, and XLC outperformed the defensive sectors of XLP and XLU. One of the notable performers of last week was TSLA, which posted an impressive gain of 33%. This week is expected to be a big one for earnings with reports due out for AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL. Additionally, we will have the FOMC rate decision and commentary on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. With the end of the month on Tuesday and the market starting the week at a key level, the next few days could be decisive in terms of market direction.
• Nasdaq posted a 4.67% gain last week after trading in a range 668 points
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline 117 points below the Dec 12th pivot high
• The Nasdaq is now 15% above the Oct 13th low.
• The aggressive XLY, XLK & XLC sectors outperformed the defensive XLP & XLU
• TSLA posted an impressive 33% gain last week
• Big week ahead for earning with reports due out for AAPL, AMZN & GOOGL
• FOMC rate decision and commentary on Wednesday & Non Farm Payrolls on Friday
• End of Month on Tuesday
• Starting the week at a key level that can break either way
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday Canadian GDP, US Case Shiller & US consumer confidence
Wednesday US S&P Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, EIA Crude, FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Factory orders
Friday US Non Farm Payrolls & US average earnings
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday CFLT, SOFI
Tuesday AMD, AMGN, CAT, EA, GM, MCD, PFE, SNAP, SYY, UPS, XOM, WDC
Wednesday ALGN, META, MO, PTON, SU, TMUS, WM, OTIS, MET
Thursday AAPL, AMZN, BCE, BMY, CLX, COP, DGX, GILD, GOOG, HOG, HON, HSY, LLY, MCHP, MRK, QCOM, SBUX, X, F
Friday CHD, ZBH
BULLISH NOTES
Above 9/21/55 emas
Above 200 sma
Above LT downward trendline
Bullish momentum
Possible positive reaction earnings & FOMC
Possible heave short coverings
Rotation away from defensive sectors
Dropping USD & yields
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at key resistance (200 sma & trendline)
Potential negative reaction to earnings & FOMC
Potential negative reaction to Non-farm payrolls
Stoch (5,1) is very oversold
Pull back possible after large run up
NQ has not made a higher high yet
Potential reversal higher in USD & yields
• Nasdaq posted a 4.67% gain last week after trading in a range 668 points
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline 117 points below the Dec 12th pivot high
• The Nasdaq is now 15% above the Oct 13th low.
• The aggressive XLY, XLK & XLC sectors outperformed the defensive XLP & XLU
• TSLA posted an impressive 33% gain last week
• Big week ahead for earning with reports due out for AAPL, AMZN & GOOGL
• FOMC rate decision and commentary on Wednesday & Non Farm Payrolls on Friday
• End of Month on Tuesday
• Starting the week at a key level that can break either way
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday Canadian GDP, US Case Shiller & US consumer confidence
Wednesday US S&P Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, EIA Crude, FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Factory orders
Friday US Non Farm Payrolls & US average earnings
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday CFLT, SOFI
Tuesday AMD, AMGN, CAT, EA, GM, MCD, PFE, SNAP, SYY, UPS, XOM, WDC
Wednesday ALGN, META, MO, PTON, SU, TMUS, WM, OTIS, MET
Thursday AAPL, AMZN, BCE, BMY, CLX, COP, DGX, GILD, GOOG, HOG, HON, HSY, LLY, MCHP, MRK, QCOM, SBUX, X, F
Friday CHD, ZBH
BULLISH NOTES
Above 9/21/55 emas
Above 200 sma
Above LT downward trendline
Bullish momentum
Possible positive reaction earnings & FOMC
Possible heave short coverings
Rotation away from defensive sectors
Dropping USD & yields
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at key resistance (200 sma & trendline)
Potential negative reaction to earnings & FOMC
Potential negative reaction to Non-farm payrolls
Stoch (5,1) is very oversold
Pull back possible after large run up
NQ has not made a higher high yet
Potential reversal higher in USD & yields
Comment:
Correction: Stoch (5,1) is very overbought not oversold. This is my near term overbought/oversold indicator. Longer term RSI still not overbought.
Comment:
Consolidating at key resistance to start the week. Here is a long term look at the NQ for context of current trend. Although the NQ has made a very bullish move it is still below the longer term trend line and has not made a higher high yet. Price is also still within the NINE21 bear zone (below Neutral). In my methodology a new up trend will not begin until price gets above the Neutral on this weekly chart.
Comment:
After hitting resistance the NQ pulled back to toward the 9 ema and the upward trendline. Holding the trendline so far. May not see a big move before the FOMC tomorrow.
Comment:
Massive short covering rally underway post FOMC. Closed above the Dec high which new higher high. So very bullish price action. Target levels are Fibs above. Currently the ES is right at the Dec high so a pull back in NQ is possible if the ES rejects at that level.
Comment:
After a massive rally yesterday that pushed price through the target levels price has reversed hard on poor earning form AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL. NQ found resistance at the LT 382 Fib and the ES rejected at the Dec 13th high. Likely that the NQ pulls back to the breakout point and possibly the ema cloud. Big gap this morning so possibility of at least a partial gap fill. Less the a 50% gap fill would be bearish.
Comment:
Filled 50% of the gap so far but fighting to get through. Above 50% will be looking for full gap fill. Rejection = potential retest of overnight low.
Comment:
So got the full gap fill. Expect resistance at the PDC.
