NQ/QQQ Weekend Look (Sept 27-Oct1)

Closed out a very interesting week ending up back where we started on Monday. Essentially all of the Evergrande dump was recovering in 4 trading days. Price now sits at the top of the neutral between the 21 ema and the 55sma. Although I love my fibs it is obvious these key moving averages are being respected by most traders and algos. Take note of the secondary touches in both directions. With that in mind a break above the 21 above would be very bullish and break back down through the 55 would be very bearish. Interestingly the neutral zone often overlays this gap between the 20/50 moving averages. Given the near 100% retracement of the down move last week I am leaning bullish. That said there are still significant risks. These risks include rising 10y rates, Evergrande, Fed taper, debt ceiling, Delta ect. So best not to lean too hard in one direction right now because things can turn on dime.

I'm personally hoping for a pull back or some sideways price movement before a break higher. A big Sunday night move to the up side would complicate things and probably lead to an initial pull back at the open on Monday.
Lets see how it plays out.

Of note.

US 10y has broken out from a base
Last trading week of Sept.
US GDP on Thursday
PMI report on Friday.

Comment:

Here's a look at the weekly.

Comment:

Rejected at the top of the neutral hard and is back below the 21ema and threatening to break the 55sma. Not a good look early. The interest rate spike is kicking in. This is the reason why I have been reposting the TNX chart a lot. Needs to hold the bottom of the tan box. If not we may see a retest of the recent low. Will update with levels as this plays out.

Comment:

50 sma did not hold. Potential bigger compound correction in play.