NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (Jun13-17)

Summary

• Bias remains Bearish
• Enter the week after broad market sell off after CPI print. Higher than expect inflation #s
• Nasdaq finished last week down 5.44% dropping 683 points on Friday
• Weekly narrative will be dominated by Fed rate decision Wed
• China locking down again.
• Oil holding in the 120 range
• All asset classed now showing weakness. Stocks, bonds & Crypto all weak.
• 10 year yield pushing above 3% and the 10y/5y as well as the 30y/5y now inverting.

BULLISH NOTES

Over sold conditions with elevated Put/Call
Potential reversal of May 24th low
Positive reaction to Fed Rate decision
Dovish commentary during FOMC press conference
Possible Short covering momentum

BEARISH NOTES

Negative sentiment across all asset classes
Potential break down below May 20th low
Negative Reaction to Rate decision
Hawkish commentary during FOMC press conference
Downward pressure from high volume Put buying
Self Fulfilling prophecy syndrome .... everyone expects the market to go down

Comment:

Setting up for potential 3 drives move lower. Here is the look on the weekly
with key levels to the down side. Note we are now trading below the LTF 382 Fib retracement so potential move to LTF 618 Fib is possible. Lines up with 2020 peak.

Comment:

Sitting just above the 1.13 fib extension and consolidating before the FOMC. On a break of the consolidation box. The 9/21 emas are my first targets to the upside. The white dotted lines below are my first targets to the down side. Reference my HTF charts above for further targets.

Comment:

After the FOMC price broke higher out of the box. It has now run into the higher time frame 382 Fib Retracement. Needs to break this level to continue higher into the 9/21 emas. Still a lot of overhead resistance.

Comment:

Could not break the 382 fib and now back in the box. So not good for the bulls with the 400 pt reversal. Break of the lows and all the levels below are in play. So far appears the move yesterday was just shorts covering to reassess.

Comment:

Broke down through the 1.13 Fib X and found support at the 1.27 Fib X (not labeled). Note that price has now retested the 1.13 fib and moved lower again over night. So a retest of the recent low and then 1.618 Fib X (dotted white line) are in play.