SUMMARY
Market continues to make new lows weekly. All sentiment indicators are reading max pain setting up for at least a short term bounce. Levels below current price getting bunched up. A lot of fib levels and extensions finding confluence in the zone above the 2020 peak. Any positive news could lead to a strong relief rally. Small RSI divergence is also in play hinting at a chance for quick reversal. That said a flush lower to complete the 3 drive pattern identified last week still possible. Highlights below.
• Bias remains Bearish. Below 9/21/55 EMAs and the Neutral zones
• Coming off big reversal post FOMC Rate hike of 75 Basis Points closing week down 4.81%
• Nasdaq – 23% from ATH
• Bearish sentiment at maximum levels
• RSI divergence now in play
• Potential short squeeze off max pain sentiment
• Completion of 3 drives pattern still possible.
EVENTS
Monday US Market closed
Tuesday Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home sales & Fed heads speak
Wednesday Canadian CPI, Fed Powell & Evans speak
Thursday Jobless claims, US PMI data Powell testifies & EIA Crude Inventories
Friday Univ. Michigan Sentiment & US Home Sales.
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Market Closed
Tuesday LEN
Wednesday WGO, KBH
Thursday CAN, FDS, RAD,FDX, SWBI
Friday CCL, KMX
BULLISH NOTES
Oversold Conditions
RSI Divergence.
Max bearish sentiment
Potential relief rally/short squeeze
Potential dovish comments from Fed heads
Potential drop in yields.
BEARISH NOTES
Potential 3 drives completion
Hawkish fed head comments
Spike in yields
Bearish Gamma squeeze
Self fulfilling prophecy syndrome
Market continues to make new lows weekly. All sentiment indicators are reading max pain setting up for at least a short term bounce. Levels below current price getting bunched up. A lot of fib levels and extensions finding confluence in the zone above the 2020 peak. Any positive news could lead to a strong relief rally. Small RSI divergence is also in play hinting at a chance for quick reversal. That said a flush lower to complete the 3 drive pattern identified last week still possible. Highlights below.
• Bias remains Bearish. Below 9/21/55 EMAs and the Neutral zones
• Coming off big reversal post FOMC Rate hike of 75 Basis Points closing week down 4.81%
• Nasdaq – 23% from ATH
• Bearish sentiment at maximum levels
• RSI divergence now in play
• Potential short squeeze off max pain sentiment
• Completion of 3 drives pattern still possible.
EVENTS
Monday US Market closed
Tuesday Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home sales & Fed heads speak
Wednesday Canadian CPI, Fed Powell & Evans speak
Thursday Jobless claims, US PMI data Powell testifies & EIA Crude Inventories
Friday Univ. Michigan Sentiment & US Home Sales.
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Market Closed
Tuesday LEN
Wednesday WGO, KBH
Thursday CAN, FDS, RAD,FDX, SWBI
Friday CCL, KMX
BULLISH NOTES
Oversold Conditions
RSI Divergence.
Max bearish sentiment
Potential relief rally/short squeeze
Potential dovish comments from Fed heads
Potential drop in yields.
BEARISH NOTES
Potential 3 drives completion
Hawkish fed head comments
Spike in yields
Bearish Gamma squeeze
Self fulfilling prophecy syndrome
Comment:
3 Drives reminder.
Comment:
Solid bounce this morning. First target to the upside is the 9 ema. Look to the June 15th pivot after that. A break of the June 15th pivot could yield a move to the 21 ema. Expect a reversal at any time. Home sales on tap for 10am EST.
Comment:
The bounce ran into a wall at the 9 ema and has since pulled back 180 pts. Now trading in a range between the Jun 15th high and the Jun 16th low. Likely waiting on Powell's testimony this morning at 930.
Comment:
Nice reaction so far to Powell's testimony. Getting a reverse H&S look right now and back above the 9ema. June 15th pivot now key for follow through.
Comment:
Here is a look on the 1H this morning. Although price was unable to break the June 15th high it is continues to make higher highs and is pushing through the 9 ema resistance. Needs to hold above the trend line to maintain upward momentum.
Comment:
The Nasdaq continues to fight overhead Fib and structural resistance. Price is above the 9 ema but the 382 Fib is proving to be a strong supply zone. The longer it if fails to break the 382 fib the higher the odds of a continuation of the down trend. Targets to the upside are the 618 fib and the June 3rd pivot. Targets to the down side are the descending trendline the the 2020 peak. Here is a look on the daily.
Comment:
Above the 382 fib and testing the 21 ema. Target 12000 next. Watch for retest of 382 .
