NQ's longer-term indicators remain Bearish, they were steadily weakening.
For now, they have some relief as they are pausing on the Daily TF, although
they remain extremely Negative. The Divergences are no longer active, they
have been resolved by Price.
This is not to suggest, Price is out of danger, it is not.
We have an important Macro Data Point on Friday - The Jobs Report. It will
either provide cover for the FED to announce the Taper or imbue the herd
to gamble.
Next week will be more important as the Tribulation of Inflation Data will be
on... CPI for September, FOMC Minutes - Wednesday.
PPI - Thursday
Retail Sales - Friday
And assorted FED Bullhorns this week and next speaking every day will
toss salads.
This brings us back to Price, which continues to widen. The ST Algos have
been using the oversold conditions to move Price higher.
Unfortunately, the Range Expands significantly under these conditions and
with it, Volatility expands as well.
Today's Range was a solid example - 348 Ticks of Range.
We see the NQ closed the 4Hr slightly above the -618.
There remains a large Daily Gap overhead, well over 15000.
We are looking for Rejection... where is now a question mark.
Piling on the Fundamental Macro Issues - Stop Gap, Budget, China DEBT Crisis,
Spending, and Evictions (Silence there in MSM) - while Inflation concerns have
disrupted the Equities Complex.
How this unfolds will come to pass over the next 5 trading days, we are closing this
week with prior Weekly close at...
One Guess where...
Where we closed today @ 14761.75 - it's high... the Primary Ledge @ 15399.50.
This implies the NQ range is now 1,032 Ticks.
Patience, in the extreme, is required as Price can move about this Range in the
Short Tern.
We can see the .500 @ 14881, the -.382 @ 15003 Week over Week. During the Roll
and Settlement for the VIX, we can see the Gap Fill ahead of this event @ 19.20.
The VIX closed the day @ 21.00, the 22.15 Level was crushed as it closed 250
Ticks off the Highs @ 23.50.
They are simply attempting to remove as much VX thru ARB/Retail as possible.
Yesterday's Retail Put Buyers we hosed again today, the majority did not close
as Price began to advance prior to the open.
They became fuel as we indicated.
With a great many events and data points unfolding over the coming 5 trading days...
Guessing isn't an option, gut feel... maybe.
Moving averages are all over the place, but remain aligned on the Longer Term TFs.
ST MA's can provide indications for a move higher.
Observing between the DOW and S&P is wild... they don't appear to be closely aligned.
Pitchforks show the Mid Point potential of being overthrown. Again, it's - wait and see.
To me, it appears we are heading higher to make a lower low.
At present there are different patterns that can now form, everything remains
fluid and being nimble, being open-minded and above all patient.. this will prevent
traders from being harmed.
Many of my signals indicate a far larger drop is ahead.
How we get there and where it begins... is developing.
We managed to enjoy a solid selloff from 15708 to 14367 or 1341 Ticks.
For now, we'll digest those gains and avoid losses. Giving back Capital after solid gains
is difficult for most to overcome, they tend to overtrade.
This is a time we will be observing, not trading until we see more Price Information presented.
- HK
For now, they have some relief as they are pausing on the Daily TF, although
they remain extremely Negative. The Divergences are no longer active, they
have been resolved by Price.
This is not to suggest, Price is out of danger, it is not.
We have an important Macro Data Point on Friday - The Jobs Report. It will
either provide cover for the FED to announce the Taper or imbue the herd
to gamble.
Next week will be more important as the Tribulation of Inflation Data will be
on... CPI for September, FOMC Minutes - Wednesday.
PPI - Thursday
Retail Sales - Friday
And assorted FED Bullhorns this week and next speaking every day will
toss salads.
This brings us back to Price, which continues to widen. The ST Algos have
been using the oversold conditions to move Price higher.
Unfortunately, the Range Expands significantly under these conditions and
with it, Volatility expands as well.
Today's Range was a solid example - 348 Ticks of Range.
We see the NQ closed the 4Hr slightly above the -618.
There remains a large Daily Gap overhead, well over 15000.
We are looking for Rejection... where is now a question mark.
Piling on the Fundamental Macro Issues - Stop Gap, Budget, China DEBT Crisis,
Spending, and Evictions (Silence there in MSM) - while Inflation concerns have
disrupted the Equities Complex.
How this unfolds will come to pass over the next 5 trading days, we are closing this
week with prior Weekly close at...
One Guess where...
Where we closed today @ 14761.75 - it's high... the Primary Ledge @ 15399.50.
This implies the NQ range is now 1,032 Ticks.
Patience, in the extreme, is required as Price can move about this Range in the
Short Tern.
We can see the .500 @ 14881, the -.382 @ 15003 Week over Week. During the Roll
and Settlement for the VIX, we can see the Gap Fill ahead of this event @ 19.20.
The VIX closed the day @ 21.00, the 22.15 Level was crushed as it closed 250
Ticks off the Highs @ 23.50.
They are simply attempting to remove as much VX thru ARB/Retail as possible.
Yesterday's Retail Put Buyers we hosed again today, the majority did not close
as Price began to advance prior to the open.
They became fuel as we indicated.
With a great many events and data points unfolding over the coming 5 trading days...
Guessing isn't an option, gut feel... maybe.
Moving averages are all over the place, but remain aligned on the Longer Term TFs.
ST MA's can provide indications for a move higher.
Observing between the DOW and S&P is wild... they don't appear to be closely aligned.
Pitchforks show the Mid Point potential of being overthrown. Again, it's - wait and see.
To me, it appears we are heading higher to make a lower low.
At present there are different patterns that can now form, everything remains
fluid and being nimble, being open-minded and above all patient.. this will prevent
traders from being harmed.
Many of my signals indicate a far larger drop is ahead.
How we get there and where it begins... is developing.
We managed to enjoy a solid selloff from 15708 to 14367 or 1341 Ticks.
For now, we'll digest those gains and avoid losses. Giving back Capital after solid gains
is difficult for most to overcome, they tend to overtrade.
This is a time we will be observing, not trading until we see more Price Information presented.
- HK
Comment:
We see the FIB Fan indicting Resistance @ the 15200 Gap Fill for NQ.