NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Apr3-7)
Back from vacay so resuming my usual schedule. Here the levels for this week. Watch for updates as the market plays out. Very bullish price action to close the week. Much of the momentum was drive by mega cap tech and potential short covering in the beaten down growth names. If the big names stall out watch for potential pull back to breakout point and ema cloud. NQ needs to hold the green box and upward trendline for bullish continuation. Trade well and have a great week.
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 2.98% gain last week after trading in a range of 672 points.
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• NQ made a new yearly high and confirmed a 2nd higher low.
• Now 23% off the October lows. (New bull market label)
• 50 SMA is firmly above the 200 SMA (momentum ETFs flip to buy)
• Positive weekly performance by all Sectors with XLE (+6.34) & XLY (+5.62) leading
• Bullish momentum driven by belief that banking crisis is over and Fed will pause or lower rates going forward
• Long term bias is now NEUTRAL
• Bearish harmonic target zone in play at 13640. May act as price magnet.
• Pull back may be required to digest recent gains. Look for support off 9/21 emas + 618 Fib RT
• Light week for earnings.
• Start of the new month and new quarter (potential new money inflows)
• Most watched econ data this week will be Non- Farm Payrolls on Friday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending
Tuesday US Factory Orders & JOLT Job Openings
Wednesday US Trade Balance, US ADP Employment & US Services PMI + EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rates
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday Nothing Notable
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday LEVI, LW, STZ
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ held above downward trendline & Dec 13th high
NQ made a new yearly high and 2nd higher low
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Harmonic completions zone at 13604 may act as magnet
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yields and USD
Potential positive reaction to PMI & NFP data
Potential beginning of month/qrt inflows
April & May are historically strong months for NQ.
BEARISH NOTES
Opening week a 786 Fib resistance
Stoch (5,1) is very overbought
Price may need to retest breakout zone or 9/21 emas
Potential negative reaction to PMI & NFP data
No earnings catalyst
Mega Cap stock are overbought
Potential short term profit taking
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 2.98% gain last week after trading in a range of 672 points.
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• NQ made a new yearly high and confirmed a 2nd higher low.
• Now 23% off the October lows. (New bull market label)
• 50 SMA is firmly above the 200 SMA (momentum ETFs flip to buy)
• Positive weekly performance by all Sectors with XLE (+6.34) & XLY (+5.62) leading
• Bullish momentum driven by belief that banking crisis is over and Fed will pause or lower rates going forward
• Long term bias is now NEUTRAL
• Bearish harmonic target zone in play at 13640. May act as price magnet.
• Pull back may be required to digest recent gains. Look for support off 9/21 emas + 618 Fib RT
• Light week for earnings.
• Start of the new month and new quarter (potential new money inflows)
• Most watched econ data this week will be Non- Farm Payrolls on Friday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending
Tuesday US Factory Orders & JOLT Job Openings
Wednesday US Trade Balance, US ADP Employment & US Services PMI + EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rates
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday Nothing Notable
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday LEVI, LW, STZ
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ held above downward trendline & Dec 13th high
NQ made a new yearly high and 2nd higher low
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Harmonic completions zone at 13604 may act as magnet
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yields and USD
Potential positive reaction to PMI & NFP data
Potential beginning of month/qrt inflows
April & May are historically strong months for NQ.
BEARISH NOTES
Opening week a 786 Fib resistance
Stoch (5,1) is very overbought
Price may need to retest breakout zone or 9/21 emas
Potential negative reaction to PMI & NFP data
No earnings catalyst
Mega Cap stock are overbought
Potential short term profit taking
Comment:
Here is the look at the bearish harmonic that is in play. I've drawn it on the NDX so the levels are different.. The completion zone acts a target for me and then a warning that it is at resistance if price gets there. The targets for a potential short give me zones of support on a pull back. The completion zone on the NQ is at 13640.
Comment:
Holding near Friday's high. Market feels extended here but still possible to get a push into the upper resistance zone. Watch mega caps names like AAPL are near heavy resistance. If Megas reverse broad market will as well.
Comment:
Weakness came into the megas as expected and has pulled the indexes down as well. Watching 9ema on $NQ_F. Likely to see a bounce there. If the level fails must look for a deeper move potentially to the 21 ema.
