NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep. (Apr10-14)
Last week price consolidated as market participants waited on new information and were unwilling to commit to a direction going into the long weekend. I would expect more volatility this week as more data will be released and earnings season kicks off on Friday.
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 1.09% loss last week after trading in a tighter range of 396 points.
• Price remained above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Last week’s price consolidation held above the Feb 2nd high
• Sectors rotated again last week with money shifting back into XLV, XLE & XLU from XLK & XLY
• Market is in a wait and see mode after a low volatility week
• Potential catalysts this week are the FOMC Minutes and CPI data
• Earnings season kicks off on Friday with reports from JPM, C, UNH & WFC
• Market expecting Fed rate pause but watching for signs of a recession
• NQ bullish momentum driven by Mega caps stocks making it vulnerable to a negative surprise from one or two stocks
• Key support and resistance zones remain the same as last week.
• Now in a historically bullish period for stocks
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Wholesale inventories & Fed heads speak
Tuesday 3 Fed Heads speak & BOC Rate statement
Wednesday US CPI, FOMC Minutes & BOC Rate Decision + EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing
Tuesday KMX
Wednesday INFY, SJR
Thursday DAL, FAST, PGR
Friday JPM, C, UNH, WFC
BULLISH NOTES
NQ held Feb 2nd high
Bullish consolidation at recent high
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Harmonic completion zone at 13604 may act as magnet
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yields and USD
Potential positive reaction to CPI & FOMC Minutes
Historically bullish period for stocks
Earnings season starts Friday with banks
BEARISH NOTES
Opening week still below 786 Fib resistance
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head talk
Potential deeper p/b to 21 ema or upward trendline
Potential negative reaction to CPI & FOMC Minutes
Momentum concentrated in a small amount of stocks
Potential hard reversal at harmonic completion zone (13604)
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Potential rise in OIL prices
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 1.09% loss last week after trading in a tighter range of 396 points.
• Price remained above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Last week’s price consolidation held above the Feb 2nd high
• Sectors rotated again last week with money shifting back into XLV, XLE & XLU from XLK & XLY
• Market is in a wait and see mode after a low volatility week
• Potential catalysts this week are the FOMC Minutes and CPI data
• Earnings season kicks off on Friday with reports from JPM, C, UNH & WFC
• Market expecting Fed rate pause but watching for signs of a recession
• NQ bullish momentum driven by Mega caps stocks making it vulnerable to a negative surprise from one or two stocks
• Key support and resistance zones remain the same as last week.
• Now in a historically bullish period for stocks
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Wholesale inventories & Fed heads speak
Tuesday 3 Fed Heads speak & BOC Rate statement
Wednesday US CPI, FOMC Minutes & BOC Rate Decision + EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing
Tuesday KMX
Wednesday INFY, SJR
Thursday DAL, FAST, PGR
Friday JPM, C, UNH, WFC
BULLISH NOTES
NQ held Feb 2nd high
Bullish consolidation at recent high
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Harmonic completion zone at 13604 may act as magnet
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yields and USD
Potential positive reaction to CPI & FOMC Minutes
Historically bullish period for stocks
Earnings season starts Friday with banks
BEARISH NOTES
Opening week still below 786 Fib resistance
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head talk
Potential deeper p/b to 21 ema or upward trendline
Potential negative reaction to CPI & FOMC Minutes
Momentum concentrated in a small amount of stocks
Potential hard reversal at harmonic completion zone (13604)
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Potential rise in OIL prices
Comment:
Here is a repost of the bearish harmonic that is in play on the NQ. Competition zone is at 13640. I treat the completion zone as a target for longs and will expect resistance if price gets there. A break above the stop at the 1.13 Fib X would be very bullish. The harmonic targets on a p/b will be treated as areas of support.
Comment:
After a few days of back and forth price action $NQ_F has completed a p/b to the bottom of the first green box and the 21 ema. Dropping PPI and high job claims have given it a bounce this AM. Break back above the 9 ema would be bullish. Even more bullish to clear the Feb 2nd high. 1st upside target would be the recent high.
