Here is a look at the levels for the Nasdaq going into the first trading week of August. I post this late as I have just returned from vacation. The reaction to Mega earnings and FOMC last week was positive for the bulls. The July high was broken and the 382 Fib targets was hit. Price is now trading at significant resistance as the 382 Fib lines up with the key June 3rd pivot high. I am expecting a pull back from this level as many have likely taken short term profits and new shorts may be entered by bearish traders. Less data due out this week but still a lot of earnings to watch. Non Farm Payrolls at the end of the week can be a market mover. The key level is now 13000. Above = bullish. Below = Bearish. Below are some things I'm considering as we start the week.
• Last week had a 900 point range and close up 4.41%
• Nasdaq up 17% off June lows.
• Strong finish last week, but closed at 382 FIB & June 3rd Pivot Resistance
• Beginning of new month
• Price above 9/21/55 EMAs
• Earnings continue with large number of companies reporting this week
• Yields have dropped with 10y now at 2.67% down .80% of a percent off recent high.
• Recession talk will continue after 2nd negative GDP print last week.
• Market will continue to be torn between Recession fears and inflation.
• Chinese aggressiveness toward Taiwan still a major concern.
• Continued pull back in the USD will provide support to commodities.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US ISM Manufacturing
Tuesday Fed’s Evans & Mester Speaks, US Jolts
Wednesday OPEC Meeting, US ISM Non-Manufacturing & US Factory Orders, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday BOE Rate Decision, US international Trade & US Jobless Claims
Friday US NonFarm Payrolls , US Average earnings.
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ATVI, ANET, CAR, DVN, FANG, PINS
Tuesday BP, CAT, DD, ETN, RACE, JBLU, MAR, UBER, AMD, ABNB, AYX, EA, MTCH, OXY,SEDG, SBUX
Wednesday CVS, DISH, MRNA, SSYS, UAA, YUM
Thursday BABA, BCE, COP, LLY, K, QSR, TNK, ZTS, AMC, AMGN, TEAM, BIGC, SQ, CVNA, NET, DOCS, EXPE, GRWG, KTOS, LYFT, MP, SWKS, SU, SPCE, YELP, ZG
Friday BEP, CGC, DKNG, WDC, TU
BULLISH NOTES
Potential new month inflows
Earnings momentum may continue
Break of Jun 3rd pivot (13K) could yield move to 14K
Continued short squeeze
Fed meeting and Mega earnings out of the way
Price now above 9/21/55 emas
200 SMA may act as a magnet
BEARISH NOTES
Price starts week at 382 Fib resistance below 13K
Market short term overbought
Current rally may need a breather
Possible hawkish comment from Fed heads
Buyers fizzle as shorts finish covering
Potential negative earnings reaction
Limited catalysts this week outside earnings.
• Last week had a 900 point range and close up 4.41%
• Nasdaq up 17% off June lows.
• Strong finish last week, but closed at 382 FIB & June 3rd Pivot Resistance
• Beginning of new month
• Price above 9/21/55 EMAs
• Earnings continue with large number of companies reporting this week
• Yields have dropped with 10y now at 2.67% down .80% of a percent off recent high.
• Recession talk will continue after 2nd negative GDP print last week.
• Market will continue to be torn between Recession fears and inflation.
• Chinese aggressiveness toward Taiwan still a major concern.
• Continued pull back in the USD will provide support to commodities.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US ISM Manufacturing
Tuesday Fed’s Evans & Mester Speaks, US Jolts
Wednesday OPEC Meeting, US ISM Non-Manufacturing & US Factory Orders, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday BOE Rate Decision, US international Trade & US Jobless Claims
Friday US NonFarm Payrolls , US Average earnings.
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ATVI, ANET, CAR, DVN, FANG, PINS
Tuesday BP, CAT, DD, ETN, RACE, JBLU, MAR, UBER, AMD, ABNB, AYX, EA, MTCH, OXY,SEDG, SBUX
Wednesday CVS, DISH, MRNA, SSYS, UAA, YUM
Thursday BABA, BCE, COP, LLY, K, QSR, TNK, ZTS, AMC, AMGN, TEAM, BIGC, SQ, CVNA, NET, DOCS, EXPE, GRWG, KTOS, LYFT, MP, SWKS, SU, SPCE, YELP, ZG
Friday BEP, CGC, DKNG, WDC, TU
BULLISH NOTES
Potential new month inflows
Earnings momentum may continue
Break of Jun 3rd pivot (13K) could yield move to 14K
Continued short squeeze
Fed meeting and Mega earnings out of the way
Price now above 9/21/55 emas
200 SMA may act as a magnet
BEARISH NOTES
Price starts week at 382 Fib resistance below 13K
Market short term overbought
Current rally may need a breather
Possible hawkish comment from Fed heads
Buyers fizzle as shorts finish covering
Potential negative earnings reaction
Limited catalysts this week outside earnings.
Comment:
Messy price action at resistance.
Comment:
Consolidation broke to the upside yesterday taking out the key pivot and is now above 13K which is bullish. Target to the upside is the .50 Fib and then the 618 Fib. May want to re-test the breakout point first. A lot of buying pressure right now though. 13k is now support.
Comment:
Negative reaction to the Non Farm Payrolls. Price may pull back to the 13k area or lower. I had expect more resistance on the way up earlier this week that didn't play out. Resistance my be registering now as the market often over shoots. This will be an important close this week as next week CPI data come out.
