NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (Aug8-12)

Here is a look at the levels for the Nasdaq going into the trading week of Aug 8-12. Rally continued last week with a break above the Jun 3rd pivot. The Nasdaq had now made the first higher high since Oct 2021. My bias has changed from Bearish to Neutral. Price has come into another key zone with downward trendline resistance above and the ema cloud support below. 13000 will be my pivot line going into the week. Above 13k = bullish. Below 13k = bearish. Below are some things I am considering going into this week.

• Last week had a 600 point range and closed up another 1.98%
• Cleared June 3rd Pivot officially making a higher high.
• Bias has been changed from Bearish to Neutral
• Above 13000 and above 9/21/55 emas.
• Important resistance above at 13500 is downward trendline & 618 Fib RT
• 200 SMA within striking distance at 14100.
• Fib levels are clustering nicely. They should provide solid support & Resistance.
• 13000 level below at the 9ema is first support. Next support is 12600 at the 21 ema
• CPI data drop on Wed will be the most important event of the week
• Potential choppy price action leading into CPI data drop.


WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday Nothing Notable
Wednesday US CPI & EIA Crude Inventories + OPEC Monthly Report
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims & US PPI
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment

NOTABLE EARNINGS

DAY EARNINGS
Monday GOLD, PLTR, TSN, WTI, ACAD, AIG, APPS, DOCN, GRPN, NVAX, TTWO, UPST,
Tuesday BHC, EMR, HGV, H, NCLH, PLNT, SYY, BE, CELH, COIN, PLUG, PLBY, RBLX, SAIL, TTD, U, VUZI
Wednesday BLDP, FNV, MFC, MQ, MTTR, VZIO, DIS
Thursday BAM, CNQ, HBI, NIO, SIX, ILMN, WPM
Friday Nothing notable

BULLISH NOTES

Continued Bullish Momentum
Above Jun 3rd Pivot, 9/21/55 EMAs
200 SMA may act as price magnet
Potential positive reaction to CPI
Potential drop in yields
Potential positive earnings momentum

BEARISH NOTES

Price coming into trend line & 618 Fib resistance
Overbought conditions
Potential Negative reaction to CPI data
Potential Negative earnings reaction
Coming into a zone where shorts will reload
Many market participants expect another leg lower
Bearish momentum if 13k is broken to down side

Comment:

Some selling came in today just below the trendline. I am still expecting a push higher before a deeper pull back, but we will see. Bulls really want to see the 13000 level hold. Bears do not want to see a strong move through the trendline. Market may wait until CPI on Wed to decide.

Comment:

So price has pulled back to the 382 and the 13k zone. Now we wait to see if 13k and the 9 ema can hold. Next level down is the 21 ema at 12688.

Comment:

Positive initial reaction to CPI. Now watching the downward trendline for resistance.

Comment:

Here is a more detailed look at the current price action.
We are at a point where the price can make a big move in either direction.

Comment:

Here is the 1H look at the Nas. The trendline has been broken overnight. The cash session is more important so the bulls should not celebrate until we have a daily close above the trend line as this may be a false breakout. I expect many traders are going to attempt a short here. If the trendline holds look for a move to the 200 sma.

Comment:

Suffered an initial rejection at the trendline yesterday as traders took profits and added short. Attempting another run. Note that we also have lower time frame 618 resistance right at the trendline. If it breaks I see a move up to the 200 sma. If it holds a deeper pull back is very possible. Still a lot of negative sentiment in the market right now.

Comment:

Here is a two pane look at the Nas. 1d and 15min. Using volume profile I'm seeing 13506 as key hurdle to get above. Above 13506 the odds increase that we see bullish continuation. 13400 area is support.