NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (Aug15-19)
The Nasdaq had another strong rally last week closing up another 2.6%. Price has now retraced 50% of the bear market plunge. The Nasdaq is at an inflexion point. Either price continues to rally higher toward the 200 SMA or rolls over as many bears predict. I am treating the 14000 area as solid resistance, the 13000 area as solid support and see the 13500 area as the bull/bear line in the sand. Below are a few points I am considering going into this trading week.
• My bias going into this week remains Neutral.
• Nasdaq completed another strong week. It had a 570-point range and finished up 2.64%.
• Closed above the downward trendline and is above the 9/21/55 emas
• Price has completed a 50% Fib retracement of the bear market drop.
• Price also sits at the 618 Fib retracement of the Mar 29th – June 16th the drop.
• 200 SMA is within striking distance.
• Price at key decision point. If price can stay above the downward trendline and clear the HTF 618 Fib at (14289) the odds of move back to ATHs increases significantly. If price falls back below the trendline and the HTF 382 Fib (12955) again the odds of re-testing the June 16th low increase significantly.
• FOMC Meeting minutes out on Wednesday
• Still see 13000 as key support below & 14000 as key resistance above. 13500 is the current Bull/Bear line.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday NY Fed Manufacturing & Fed’s Waller Speaks
Tuesday Canadian CPI, US Housing Starts & US Industrial Production
Wednesday US Retail Sales, US EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Minutes
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims & Canadian PPI
Friday Canadian Retail Sales, Fed’s Barkin Speaks & Baker Hughs Rig count
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday GLBE, ZIP
Tuesday HD, HUYA, SE, WMT, A
Wednesday DNUT, LOW, TGT, TJX, BBWI, CSCO
Thursday BJ, KSS, EL, NIO, WB, AMAT
Friday DE, VIPS, FL
BULLISH NOTES
Price above downward trend line
Price above 9/21/55 ema
200 SMA within striking distance
Low VIX
Potential continuation of Short covering rally
Dropping yields
Inflationary pressure continues to drop
BEARISH NOTES
Overbought conditions
After 4 green weeks a correction is overdue
Many traders expect the market to roll over at this level
Below the HTF 618 Fib still technically in a bear rally
Potential negative reaction to large cap retail earnings
Potential shock events (eg. Taiwan or social unrest)
Sudden increase in yields would be negative.
Possible profit taking week
• My bias going into this week remains Neutral.
• Nasdaq completed another strong week. It had a 570-point range and finished up 2.64%.
• Closed above the downward trendline and is above the 9/21/55 emas
• Price has completed a 50% Fib retracement of the bear market drop.
• Price also sits at the 618 Fib retracement of the Mar 29th – June 16th the drop.
• 200 SMA is within striking distance.
• Price at key decision point. If price can stay above the downward trendline and clear the HTF 618 Fib at (14289) the odds of move back to ATHs increases significantly. If price falls back below the trendline and the HTF 382 Fib (12955) again the odds of re-testing the June 16th low increase significantly.
• FOMC Meeting minutes out on Wednesday
• Still see 13000 as key support below & 14000 as key resistance above. 13500 is the current Bull/Bear line.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday NY Fed Manufacturing & Fed’s Waller Speaks
Tuesday Canadian CPI, US Housing Starts & US Industrial Production
Wednesday US Retail Sales, US EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Minutes
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims & Canadian PPI
Friday Canadian Retail Sales, Fed’s Barkin Speaks & Baker Hughs Rig count
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday GLBE, ZIP
Tuesday HD, HUYA, SE, WMT, A
Wednesday DNUT, LOW, TGT, TJX, BBWI, CSCO
Thursday BJ, KSS, EL, NIO, WB, AMAT
Friday DE, VIPS, FL
BULLISH NOTES
Price above downward trend line
Price above 9/21/55 ema
200 SMA within striking distance
Low VIX
Potential continuation of Short covering rally
Dropping yields
Inflationary pressure continues to drop
BEARISH NOTES
Overbought conditions
After 4 green weeks a correction is overdue
Many traders expect the market to roll over at this level
Below the HTF 618 Fib still technically in a bear rally
Potential negative reaction to large cap retail earnings
Potential shock events (eg. Taiwan or social unrest)
Sudden increase in yields would be negative.
Possible profit taking week
Comment:
Nasdaq showing relative weakness today vs S&P. It may want to retest the 618 Fib on this pull back. Still targeting the 200 sma above, but it may need to digest recent gains firsts. A break down below the trendline would be bearish. It needs to hold the line for the bull run to continue.
Comment:
Test of 618 complete and pushing to highs. A break above yesterdays high and we could see a nice push higher. Should execute caution with FOMC minutes tomorrow. Also S&P at significant resistant point right now and may reverse.
Comment:
Break out failed yesterday and selling set in overnight. Risk of FOMC meeting has everyone nervous. Now back re-testing the 618 Fib. Trendline below lines up with the 9 ema so that is a potential lower target if selling continues.
Comment:
Price continues to work the 13500 level. As noted in the original post I see 13500 as this weeks bull/bear line. Above it the Nas is likely to test the 200 sma. Below it price will likely re-test the 21 ema. Notes on the chart highlight a few things I am considering.
Comment:
Quick note the downward trendline has not been tested yet. Price not likely to move higher until that happens. Also of note that is OPEX week so price action may be volatile around key levels to finish the week.
Comment:
We got the trend line touch overnight. Now we have to wait to see if the trendline can hold. Trades would be to watch for a lower time frame base and play for a gap fill or go short if the trendline fails. Next level below is the 21 ema. Target above would be yesterday's close.
