NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (Aug22-26)
Last week the Nasdaq failed at it's first attempt to break through the downward trend line and the lower time frame 618 Fib. The 13500 remains my bull/bear line going into this week. If price cannot reclaim the 13500 level I will expect lower lows with the first down side target coming in at the 21 ema. If price manages to break back above the 13500 level I will be looking for a bullish move into the 200 sma. Below are some points I will be considering going into this trading week.
• Nasdaq pulled back last week. It had a 530-point range and finished down 2.28%.
• 13500 remains my bull/bear line. Currently trading below the bull/bear line and downward trendline
• Nasdaq bias remains Neutral. Will not flip to Bullish unless 14200 is broken.
• Jackson Hole Wed -Friday is the key event this week
• Durable Goods, Crude Inventories & GDP data also on tap.
• Market sentiment remains bearish.
• Watch for VIX spike this week. Notable above 24.
• Some highly watched tech names reporting earnings this week like NVDA, NIO, ZM, SNOW, CRM
• Watch 10year yield. A move above 3% could have negative impact on tech/growth stock
• USD has been moving higher. A breakout on the DXY above 109 would be a negative for stocks.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US New Home Sales & Feb’s Kashkari Speaks
Wednesday US Durable goods, EIA Crude Inventories & Jackson Hole starts
Thursday Initial Jobless Claim, US GDP & Jackon Hole cont’
Friday Consumer Spending, University of Mich. Sentiment & Powell speaks
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday PANW, ZM
Tuesday BNS, DKS, SJM, M, INTU, JWN, TOL, URBN
Wednesday RY, ADSK, GES, NVDA, CRM, SNOW, SPLK, WSM
Thursday ANF, COTY, DG, DLTR, NIO, PTON, TD, AFRM, ESTC, FTCH, MRVL, ULTA, VMW
Friday JKS
BULLISH NOTES
200 SMA still in play as price magnet
Potential positive reaction to Jackson Hole
Potential positive reaction to economic dat
Strong bounce off the 21 ema possible
Potential short coving rally if recent high taken out
BEARISH NOTES
Price rejected the downward trend line
Price back below the LTF 618 Fib
Potential negative reaction to Jackson Hole
Potential negative reaction to economic data
Spike in yields may spook markets
USD gaining strength once again
Event shock still a risk
Sentiment remains bearish. Heavy PUT buying may push markets lower.
• Nasdaq pulled back last week. It had a 530-point range and finished down 2.28%.
• 13500 remains my bull/bear line. Currently trading below the bull/bear line and downward trendline
• Nasdaq bias remains Neutral. Will not flip to Bullish unless 14200 is broken.
• Jackson Hole Wed -Friday is the key event this week
• Durable Goods, Crude Inventories & GDP data also on tap.
• Market sentiment remains bearish.
• Watch for VIX spike this week. Notable above 24.
• Some highly watched tech names reporting earnings this week like NVDA, NIO, ZM, SNOW, CRM
• Watch 10year yield. A move above 3% could have negative impact on tech/growth stock
• USD has been moving higher. A breakout on the DXY above 109 would be a negative for stocks.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US New Home Sales & Feb’s Kashkari Speaks
Wednesday US Durable goods, EIA Crude Inventories & Jackson Hole starts
Thursday Initial Jobless Claim, US GDP & Jackon Hole cont’
Friday Consumer Spending, University of Mich. Sentiment & Powell speaks
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday PANW, ZM
Tuesday BNS, DKS, SJM, M, INTU, JWN, TOL, URBN
Wednesday RY, ADSK, GES, NVDA, CRM, SNOW, SPLK, WSM
Thursday ANF, COTY, DG, DLTR, NIO, PTON, TD, AFRM, ESTC, FTCH, MRVL, ULTA, VMW
Friday JKS
BULLISH NOTES
200 SMA still in play as price magnet
Potential positive reaction to Jackson Hole
Potential positive reaction to economic dat
Strong bounce off the 21 ema possible
Potential short coving rally if recent high taken out
BEARISH NOTES
Price rejected the downward trend line
Price back below the LTF 618 Fib
Potential negative reaction to Jackson Hole
Potential negative reaction to economic data
Spike in yields may spook markets
USD gaining strength once again
Event shock still a risk
Sentiment remains bearish. Heavy PUT buying may push markets lower.
Comment:
Gapped below the 21 ema overnight. So for now the market is disregarding the technical levels. A move down to the 382 fib is likely. On large gaps it may be best to watch price action play out as we now have pressure to the downside but also a chance for a big gap fill move to the upside.
Comment:
Ugly day so far. No bids whatsoever. Broke the 21 ema and the 382 Fib with barely a pause. 55 ema next target to the down side. The ascending trend line below is now also in play.
Comment:
Currently stuck between the 55 ema and the 382 Fib after falling through the 21 ema. The 382 Fib is now resistance and is close to the 13000 psychological level. If price cannot reclaim the 382 if would be bearish.
Comment:
The fight with the 382 Fib continues. The fact that price has been rejected on every touch is bearish and a test of the recent low and potentially the 55 ema is likely. Conversely if the the 382 is broken to the upside that would be a change in momentum and longs can be taken using the 382 as support.
Comment:
Broke above the 382 and out of the consolidation box overnight and tapped the 21 ema, but now falling back into range. Above the 21 ema is bullish. Inside the box is neutral and below the box is bearish. Has the potential to chop until Powell's speech tomorrow.
Comment:
Moving up on some softer than expected PCE data and now above yesterdays high. The red arrows point to the areas I'm watching. Price coming into the descending trendline now.
