NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (Aug 29-Sep2)
Here are the levels going into the trading week of Aug 29 to Sept 2nd. Below are a few points I am considering.
• My bias going into this week is Bearish again.
• Nasdaq dropped sharply on Friday last week. It had a 650-point range and finished down 4.88%.
• Price has dropped back below the 9/21/55 emas
• Price is back below the Neutral zone. (Below HTF 382 Fib RT)
• 1st support at the LTF 50 Fib RT (12339) & ascending trendline
• Bears now in control
• Currently in a seasonally weak period of the year.
• Sentiment is very bearish. Bad news treated as bad. Good news treated as not good enough.
• VIX has spiked from below 20 to above 25.
• Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday potential market mover
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Brainard speaks
Tuesday Fed’s Barkin speaks, US Consumer confidence & Jolts
Wednesday Euro Zone CPI, Canadian GDP & US EIA Crude inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims & US ISM Manufacturing
Friday US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls & US Factory orders
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday BIDU, BMO, BBY, CRWD, HPE, HPQ
Wednesday VRA, MDB, NTNX, PSTG, VEEV
Thursday HRL, WB, AVGO, LULU, PD
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
Oversold conditions
Potential dovish walk back form Fed head speeches
Still above ascending trendline
Hard reversal possible on any positive news
Bond yield may reverse lower and call Powell’s bluff
BEARISH NOTES
Massive down day on Friday
Below 9/21/55 emas
Below HTF 382 Fib RT
Very negative sentiment
Potential liquidity break due to low summer volumes
Potential Put Gamma squeeze
Net long trades may flip Net short
Potential bond yield spike above 3.5 %
• My bias going into this week is Bearish again.
• Nasdaq dropped sharply on Friday last week. It had a 650-point range and finished down 4.88%.
• Price has dropped back below the 9/21/55 emas
• Price is back below the Neutral zone. (Below HTF 382 Fib RT)
• 1st support at the LTF 50 Fib RT (12339) & ascending trendline
• Bears now in control
• Currently in a seasonally weak period of the year.
• Sentiment is very bearish. Bad news treated as bad. Good news treated as not good enough.
• VIX has spiked from below 20 to above 25.
• Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday potential market mover
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Brainard speaks
Tuesday Fed’s Barkin speaks, US Consumer confidence & Jolts
Wednesday Euro Zone CPI, Canadian GDP & US EIA Crude inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims & US ISM Manufacturing
Friday US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls & US Factory orders
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday BIDU, BMO, BBY, CRWD, HPE, HPQ
Wednesday VRA, MDB, NTNX, PSTG, VEEV
Thursday HRL, WB, AVGO, LULU, PD
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
Oversold conditions
Potential dovish walk back form Fed head speeches
Still above ascending trendline
Hard reversal possible on any positive news
Bond yield may reverse lower and call Powell’s bluff
BEARISH NOTES
Massive down day on Friday
Below 9/21/55 emas
Below HTF 382 Fib RT
Very negative sentiment
Potential liquidity break due to low summer volumes
Potential Put Gamma squeeze
Net long trades may flip Net short
Potential bond yield spike above 3.5 %
Comment:
Most of the time I prefer to use the 55 ema. However, it is clear that the market is reacting to the 50 SMA. Currently price is trading right at the 50 sma so the push down on Friday and pre market was targeting that level. Above it expect a bounce. Below is bearish.
Comment:
Chopped yesterday in a bearish flag pattern. Showing some weakness this morning. If the recent low is broken near the 50 SMA I will be looking for a bearish move down to 12300 and the 12070.
Comment:
Nas hit the ascending trendline which was the first downside target. May get support. If not looking at a potential move down to 12070.
Comment:
Reacting a little of the trendline. Of note that price has now completed a compound corrective move. In normal circumstances we should see a decent bounce here. If the bounce fails quickly I would take that as a very bearish sign and deeper lows would be expected.
Comment:
Small bounce this morning but rejected at the 50 sma. Now moving down and retesting the trendline support again and the 50% Fib. If the trend line low is broken to the downside look for a move to the 618 Fib at about 12070. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday will be important.
Comment:
Exact bounce off the 618 Fib at 12017. May have been short covering before Non-Farm payrolls tomorrow. Data out at 830 est. Weakening employment stats would be bullish for the market. Strong data may send the market tumbling again.
