NAS/QQQ Weekend Look (Apr 4-8)
Here is the weekend look at the Nasdaq 100 going into April 4th -8th. The Nasdaq closed +0.73% after making an initial 3.40% push higher into 15260 pivot resistance. As mentioned last week the 200 sma was indeed a magnet drawing price as high as 15268 before reversing the balance of the week. By dropping 2.5% over Wed, Thurs & Friday back to the 9ema. The Nasdaq closed on Friday at 14863.
Going into this week I will maintain a neutral to bullish bias given that price currently sits above the 9/21 ema cloud and is holding near the top of the neutral box. To continue higher, however, the Nasdaq will need to reclaim the 200 sma and break through the recent high of 15268.75. A deeper pull back would bring price back to the 21 ema and potentially the bottom of the neutral box again. If price can resume the uptrend targets would be the recent high at 15268 and then the 786 fib at 15792.
The Ukraine war will dominate headlines again as will the price of OIL and inflation. Although a peace agreement seemed promising last week, there are now reports of genocide in Bucha. The pictures getting circulated are horrific and the pressure on the West/US to do more is increasing. Regarding oil, the release from the strategic reserve by Biden was huge and one would expect a further drop in oil, but the futures market, which is forward looking, may start to price in continued supply shortages 6 months out. Both situations may increase inflation which has continued to push higher due to persistent supply constraints & employee shortages. Increased inflation will continue to be a problem and likely lead to higher interest rates. High interest rates will put pressure on stocks, especially small caps and growth. Of course, it is impossible to predict the direction of current events as one headline could change everything, so now more than ever one must focus on the actual outcomes. The one certainty is uncertainty and volatility. We must expect wild moves in either direction. Best just to focus on the key levels and trade according to if/then scenarios.
If you find my posts helpful please give it a like. Follow my one Twitter @Sea2Sky_trader.
Here is a link to my Substack of this post with additional info: 7mesh.substack.com/p...100-weekend-look-21c
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday... US Factory Orders
Tuesday... US Trade balance & ISM Manufacturing
Wednesday... EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Minute
Thursday... Jobless Claims & Fed head speak
Friday... US Wholesale inventories
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday... Nothing notable
Wednesday... TLRY, LEVI,
Thursday... STZ, PSMT
Friday... Nothing notable
BULLISH VS BEARISH NOTES
BULLISH BEARISH
Potential peace agreement War in Ukraine worsens and US takes more action
Reclaim of 200 sma Price breaks below 9ema
Oil prices fall Oil prices rise
Potential recovery in bonds Commodity inflations continues to soar.
Bonds continue sell off and rates rise
Serious unknown event draws US further into Ukraine war.
Going into this week I will maintain a neutral to bullish bias given that price currently sits above the 9/21 ema cloud and is holding near the top of the neutral box. To continue higher, however, the Nasdaq will need to reclaim the 200 sma and break through the recent high of 15268.75. A deeper pull back would bring price back to the 21 ema and potentially the bottom of the neutral box again. If price can resume the uptrend targets would be the recent high at 15268 and then the 786 fib at 15792.
The Ukraine war will dominate headlines again as will the price of OIL and inflation. Although a peace agreement seemed promising last week, there are now reports of genocide in Bucha. The pictures getting circulated are horrific and the pressure on the West/US to do more is increasing. Regarding oil, the release from the strategic reserve by Biden was huge and one would expect a further drop in oil, but the futures market, which is forward looking, may start to price in continued supply shortages 6 months out. Both situations may increase inflation which has continued to push higher due to persistent supply constraints & employee shortages. Increased inflation will continue to be a problem and likely lead to higher interest rates. High interest rates will put pressure on stocks, especially small caps and growth. Of course, it is impossible to predict the direction of current events as one headline could change everything, so now more than ever one must focus on the actual outcomes. The one certainty is uncertainty and volatility. We must expect wild moves in either direction. Best just to focus on the key levels and trade according to if/then scenarios.
If you find my posts helpful please give it a like. Follow my one Twitter @Sea2Sky_trader.
Here is a link to my Substack of this post with additional info: 7mesh.substack.com/p...100-weekend-look-21c
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday... US Factory Orders
Tuesday... US Trade balance & ISM Manufacturing
Wednesday... EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Minute
Thursday... Jobless Claims & Fed head speak
Friday... US Wholesale inventories
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday... Nothing notable
Wednesday... TLRY, LEVI,
Thursday... STZ, PSMT
Friday... Nothing notable
BULLISH VS BEARISH NOTES
BULLISH BEARISH
Potential peace agreement War in Ukraine worsens and US takes more action
Reclaim of 200 sma Price breaks below 9ema
Oil prices fall Oil prices rise
Potential recovery in bonds Commodity inflations continues to soar.
Bonds continue sell off and rates rise
Serious unknown event draws US further into Ukraine war.
Comment:
Bounced nicely off the 9 ema. Expecting a re-test of the 200 sma and recent high. Watch for a potential double top in that area. Breaks through look for continuation to the 786 fib.
Comment:
Bounce off that 9ema right back into the 200 sma. Now back at the 9ema again. This is the volatility I was referencing in the initial post. May see lower now, possibly back to the 21ema.
Comment:
Down to the 21 ema overnight. Chance we get a bounce here.
Next level down is the bottom of the neutral. (tan box)
Next level down is the bottom of the neutral. (tan box)
Comment:
Couple more levels I am watching for bounces that I can scalp intraday. Pivot support and then the 382 fib retracement of the recent up move.
Comment:
Found the pivot support but it is weakening. Likely to test the 382 Fib and bottom of neutral box.
Comment:
250 pt bounce off the 382 fib.
Bullish Notes
Potential peace agreement
Potential to hold top of Neutral
Oil prices fall
Potential recovery in bonds
Yields stabilize
Bearish Notes:
War in Ukraine worsens, and US takes more action
Price breaks below 9ema
Oil prices rise
Commodity inflations continues to soar.
Bonds continue sell off and rates rise
Serious unknown event draws US further into Ukraine war.