Nasdaq 100 Weekend Look (Apr11-15)
Here is the weekend look going into the trading week of April 11th – 15th. Last week the Nasdaq closed 3.6% lower after rejecting the re-test of the 200 sma and the top of the higher time frame neutral box. The Nasdaq double topped on Monday near the 15268 pivot and dropped for the remainder of the week. Price closed on the Friday back below the 9/21 ema cloud right on the 382-fib retracement of the recent move up.
Going into next week my bias has dropped from Neutral => Bullish to Neutral => Bearish again. Price is below the 200 sma and below the 9/21 ema cloud and sits at the bottom of the high time frame Neutral box. For simplicity I have remove the higher time frame neural from the chart and added the neutral box measured from the most recent move. The top of this box at 14334 represent the line in the sand to start the week. Above 14334 I will be looking for a move back through ema cloud to the 200 sma and the 15268 pivot. Above the 15268 pivot a move back to the 886 fib at 16269 is possible. Below the 14334 level I will be looking for a move to the bottom of the neutral box at 13786. If the 13786 level is taken out a move back to the Mar 15th low at 12942 is possible.
The Nasdaq has established a range between 15268 and 12942 in a large consolidation pattern. The bad news is that price may be stuck in this range for a while. The good news is that price has been respecting the key emas the fib levels allowing for good intraday scalps.
The news cycle will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine, inflation and interest rates. This week will feature the all-important CPI data and the beginning of earning season again with the major banks reporting on Wed & Thur. Although the tone is decidedly bearish any positive development will reverse the market sharply as we have seen over the past few weeks. For this reason, I will not be committing heavily in either direction until the market breaks out of the current range.
If you find my posts helpful please give me a like. For more updates and info follow me on Twitter @Sea2Sky_Trader.
Here is a link to my Substack of this post with additional data: nine21.substack...es-weekend-look?r=8g8xk&am...
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed Heads Speak
Tuesday US CPI
Wednesday US PPI, US EIA Crude Inventories, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Retail Sales & US Jobless Claims
Friday US Industrial Production
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday
Tuesday KMX
Wednesday BBBY, BLK, DAL, FAST, JPM,
Thursday C, GS, MS, TSM, UNH, WFC
Friday
BULLISH VS BEARISH NOTES
BULLISH
Earning season momentum
Potential CPI surprise to the downside
Potential drop in yields
Potential peace agreement in Ukraine
BEARISH
Bank earnings disappoint
CPI surprises to the upside
Rise in yields and further yield inversion
Ukraine situation worsens
Chinese covid lock downs expand
Going into next week my bias has dropped from Neutral => Bullish to Neutral => Bearish again. Price is below the 200 sma and below the 9/21 ema cloud and sits at the bottom of the high time frame Neutral box. For simplicity I have remove the higher time frame neural from the chart and added the neutral box measured from the most recent move. The top of this box at 14334 represent the line in the sand to start the week. Above 14334 I will be looking for a move back through ema cloud to the 200 sma and the 15268 pivot. Above the 15268 pivot a move back to the 886 fib at 16269 is possible. Below the 14334 level I will be looking for a move to the bottom of the neutral box at 13786. If the 13786 level is taken out a move back to the Mar 15th low at 12942 is possible.
The Nasdaq has established a range between 15268 and 12942 in a large consolidation pattern. The bad news is that price may be stuck in this range for a while. The good news is that price has been respecting the key emas the fib levels allowing for good intraday scalps.
The news cycle will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine, inflation and interest rates. This week will feature the all-important CPI data and the beginning of earning season again with the major banks reporting on Wed & Thur. Although the tone is decidedly bearish any positive development will reverse the market sharply as we have seen over the past few weeks. For this reason, I will not be committing heavily in either direction until the market breaks out of the current range.
If you find my posts helpful please give me a like. For more updates and info follow me on Twitter @Sea2Sky_Trader.
Here is a link to my Substack of this post with additional data: nine21.substack...es-weekend-look?r=8g8xk&am...
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed Heads Speak
Tuesday US CPI
Wednesday US PPI, US EIA Crude Inventories, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Retail Sales & US Jobless Claims
Friday US Industrial Production
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday
Tuesday KMX
Wednesday BBBY, BLK, DAL, FAST, JPM,
Thursday C, GS, MS, TSM, UNH, WFC
Friday
BULLISH VS BEARISH NOTES
BULLISH
Earning season momentum
Potential CPI surprise to the downside
Potential drop in yields
Potential peace agreement in Ukraine
BEARISH
Bank earnings disappoint
CPI surprises to the upside
Rise in yields and further yield inversion
Ukraine situation worsens
Chinese covid lock downs expand
Comment:
Broke below the 14344 level last night and retested at the red arrow confirming downtrend. Move down to the bottom of the neutral (trend box) likely identified by green arrow. Warning...CPI data out tomorrow morning 830 EST could cause wild price swings in either direction.
Comment:
Big bounce after CPI. May be short covering to begin with as the data was in line not higher than expected. Watching the top of neutral and then the 21 ema for potential resistance. Above the 21 ema I get a lot more bullish.
Comment:
The early morning move yesterday after the CPI data was released did indeed turn out to be short covering. Price rejected at the top of the neutral as shorts re-entered. Buyers are waiting above the 21 ema. Until that level is reclaimed price movement is likely sideways to down. 14000 in proving to be a line in the sand. Price i currently trading just above and below it. Support comes in at the bottom of the Neutral and then the 786 below.
Comment:
Today is a good example of how price can move inside the neutral. Bouncing back and forth within the range. Will need to breakout out in either direction to get some momentum. May not happen going into the long weekend.
