The Nasdaq closed the week up 1.93% after trading in a range of 651 points. It was a volatile week filled with economic data. An explosive move on Wednesday propelled the NQ 517 points higher after weaker than expected inflation data and a speech by Powell. The NQ then gapped back down on Friday morning after NFP number but managed to recover the entire down move by the end of the day to close out the week at 12010 which is the high of the recent range. Price closed above the longer term 236 Fib RT & the key emas. The 200 sma and downward trend line continue to act as a price magnet for the bulls. This key resistance comes in at 12550. Posting the weekly chart this time as I see the 236 Fib RT as key support below and the 382 Fib RT as key resistance above.
• Coming off positive +1.93 % week
• Price above longer term 236 Fib RT and the key emas
• 200 SMA & downward trend line price magnet
• S&P closed above the 200 SMA for the 1st time since March
• Longer term 382 Fib RT now lines up perfectly with the 200 SMA
• Lighter week for econ data
• CPI and FOMC meeting scheduled the following week
• Massive move potential in either direction given key price location
• Historically bullish period for stocks
• Market torn between easing inflation & fears of a recession
• DXY & bond yield have dropped substantially.
• VIX is now below 20 = max complacency
• Massive yield inversion still a concern.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US ISM Services PMI & US Factory Orders
Tuesday US International Trade
Wednesday BoC Rate Decision & US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims
Friday US PPI & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday BHP, MDB, TOL
Wednesday CPB, GME, THO
Thursday AVGO, COST, DOCU, LULU, ORCL
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
Above 236 Fib RT & 9/21/55 ema
200 sma price magnet
Seasonally strong period for stocks
Declining bond yields
Less hawkish tone from Fed heads
Potential rally into CPI & FOMC following week
Many stocks developing bullish charts.
BEARISH NOTES
SPX at 200 sma resistance already
Stoch (5,1) very overbought at 85.90
Price already 14% off lows
Current rally did not start with a VIX spike
VIX below 20 = market overly complacent
Value/staple names leading current rally
• Coming off positive +1.93 % week
• Price above longer term 236 Fib RT and the key emas
• 200 SMA & downward trend line price magnet
• S&P closed above the 200 SMA for the 1st time since March
• Longer term 382 Fib RT now lines up perfectly with the 200 SMA
• Lighter week for econ data
• CPI and FOMC meeting scheduled the following week
• Massive move potential in either direction given key price location
• Historically bullish period for stocks
• Market torn between easing inflation & fears of a recession
• DXY & bond yield have dropped substantially.
• VIX is now below 20 = max complacency
• Massive yield inversion still a concern.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US ISM Services PMI & US Factory Orders
Tuesday US International Trade
Wednesday BoC Rate Decision & US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims
Friday US PPI & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday BHP, MDB, TOL
Wednesday CPB, GME, THO
Thursday AVGO, COST, DOCU, LULU, ORCL
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
Above 236 Fib RT & 9/21/55 ema
200 sma price magnet
Seasonally strong period for stocks
Declining bond yields
Less hawkish tone from Fed heads
Potential rally into CPI & FOMC following week
Many stocks developing bullish charts.
BEARISH NOTES
SPX at 200 sma resistance already
Stoch (5,1) very overbought at 85.90
Price already 14% off lows
Current rally did not start with a VIX spike
VIX below 20 = market overly complacent
Value/staple names leading current rally
Comment:
The NQ seem to be playing off what the ES is doing. The ES is battling at the 200sma and setting the tone. Following ES more closely right now. A break above the 200 in the ES would likely drag the NQ along. Same thing if the reverse plays out.
Comment:
ES rejected and sent this tumbling. The NQ has broken below the 21 ema and the key 236 Fib mentioned in the original post. Bulls need price to reclaim the 21 ema /236 Fib level or price will likely drop to at least the 11500 zone.
