NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (May8-12)
Another broken record post b/c the levels are more or less the same at the past few weeks but it is what it is. NQ has been trading in this range for a while between the Feb 2nd high and the 786 Fib. Closed at the high of range so a potential break higher into the 886 Fib, but we will see. Play the range until it breaks.
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 0.11% loss last week after trading in a range of 360 points.
• NQ traded down the first 4 days of the week but closed on Friday above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLP & XLK. Weakest was XLE & XLC
• NQ closed the 2nd week in a row at the high of range
• Positive reaction to FOMC rate hike and bank failures
• Key catalyst this week will be the CPI data on Wednesday
• Earnings this week include reports from LCID, PLUG, DIS, RIVN, ABNB, PYPL, TTD, CELH & HOOD
• Bearish Harmonic still in play with completion at 13640.
• Sell in May psychological effect in play
• Market trading like it expects a pause in rate hikes
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Wholesale inventories NY Feb Inflation expectations
Tuesday Fed’s Jefferson & Williams speaks
Wednesday US CPI & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday BoE Rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims & US PPI + Fed’s Waller speaks
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ACAD, CRSP, DISH, DVN, KKR, LCID, MCK, PLTR, PYPL, PLUG, PGNY, SWKS, TSN
Tuesday ABNB, AFRM, AKAM, APD, AXON, BE, CELH, COTY, EA, OXY, RIVN, TOST, TWLO, UA, WYNN
Wednesday BAM, DIS, HOOD, IEP, MFC, NTR, PFGC, RBLX, TEVA, TTD, U, WEN
Thursday AQN, CPG, JD, YETI
Friday HMC
BULLISH NOTES
Successfully held another test of the Feb 2nd high
Bullish close on Friday recovering from 4 down days
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Harmonic completion zone at 13640 may act as magnet
Top of longer term Neutral zone within striking distance
Yields holding below 4%
Potential positive reaction to CPI & earnings
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at top of recent range
VIX is at 17 and due for a spike.
Sell in May psychological effect
Potential negative reaction to CPI data and earnings
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Potential hard reversal at harmonic completion zone (13640)
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Defensive XLP sector is persistently strong
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 0.11% loss last week after trading in a range of 360 points.
• NQ traded down the first 4 days of the week but closed on Friday above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLP & XLK. Weakest was XLE & XLC
• NQ closed the 2nd week in a row at the high of range
• Positive reaction to FOMC rate hike and bank failures
• Key catalyst this week will be the CPI data on Wednesday
• Earnings this week include reports from LCID, PLUG, DIS, RIVN, ABNB, PYPL, TTD, CELH & HOOD
• Bearish Harmonic still in play with completion at 13640.
• Sell in May psychological effect in play
• Market trading like it expects a pause in rate hikes
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Wholesale inventories NY Feb Inflation expectations
Tuesday Fed’s Jefferson & Williams speaks
Wednesday US CPI & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday BoE Rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims & US PPI + Fed’s Waller speaks
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ACAD, CRSP, DISH, DVN, KKR, LCID, MCK, PLTR, PYPL, PLUG, PGNY, SWKS, TSN
Tuesday ABNB, AFRM, AKAM, APD, AXON, BE, CELH, COTY, EA, OXY, RIVN, TOST, TWLO, UA, WYNN
Wednesday BAM, DIS, HOOD, IEP, MFC, NTR, PFGC, RBLX, TEVA, TTD, U, WEN
Thursday AQN, CPG, JD, YETI
Friday HMC
BULLISH NOTES
Successfully held another test of the Feb 2nd high
Bullish close on Friday recovering from 4 down days
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Harmonic completion zone at 13640 may act as magnet
Top of longer term Neutral zone within striking distance
Yields holding below 4%
Potential positive reaction to CPI & earnings
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at top of recent range
VIX is at 17 and due for a spike.
Sell in May psychological effect
Potential negative reaction to CPI data and earnings
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Potential hard reversal at harmonic completion zone (13640)
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Defensive XLP sector is persistently strong
Comment:
So not surprisingly we have had two days of consolidation coming into the CPI data. Price had pulled back to 9 ema but has now broken higher after data that came close to expectation. So far positive reaction but hard to read until the cash session open. If price continues higher my target remains the harmonic completion at 13640. Watch for resistance at that point if it gets there. If price drops first key support at the Feb 2nd high.
Comment:
$NQ_F inched high yesterday, but has pulled back yet again. No straight lines in this mrk as most vertical moves get retrace. Looking for blow off move into the harmonic completion. Price may have come close enough already, however and a deeper sell off may happen any time. Break back below the 786 fib would be bearish. A break below the Feb 2nd high would be very bearish.
