NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (May1-5)
NQ closed the week on a positve note finishing at the high of the 4 week range setting up a potential spike move into the 886 Fib before the FOMC rate decision on Wedneday. All recent moves have been reversed so watch for a clean break and follow through before any aggresive entries long.
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 1.91% gain last week after trading in a range of 524 points.
• Price reclaimed the 9 ema & remained above the 21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLC, XLK. Weakest was XLU
• NQ recent 4 week range is poised to finally break one way or the other
• Key catalyst this week will be the FOMC rate decision & commentary on the Wednesday
• This week’s earnings include reports from AAPL, LYFT, UBER, MRO, AMD, SEDG, COIN, BUD & PFE
• Bearish Harmonic still in play with completion at 13640.
• Still in a historically bullish period for stocks but talk will start about sell in May.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday US Factory Orders & US JOLTS
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change, US S&P Serviced PMI, EIA Crude & FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Statement, US Trade Balance & US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday US Unemployment Rate, US Non Farm Payrolls
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ANET, CAR, DF, FANG, L, MGM, NXPI, SFM, SOFI, SYK,
Tuesday AMD, AME, BP, CHK, CMI, CZR, ECL, EIX, ETN, F, MAR, MPC, MTCH, PAYC, PFE, QSR, SBUX, SRPT, SYY, TAP, UBER, WU, XP, ZBH,
Wednesday ALB, ALL, CFLT, CTSH, CVS, EL, ETSY, FTS, GOLD, IR, KHC, MET, MRO, PSA, QCOM, QRVO, RUN, SEDG, TT, WING, YUM, Z
Thursday AAPL, AIG, BCE, BUD, CAH, CNQ, COIN, COP, DASH, DBX, DDOG, DKNG, ED, EXPE, FTNT, H, K, LYFT, MCHP, MRNA,
Friday DISH, ENB, FLR, JCI, NVO
BULLISH NOTES
NQ reclaimed 9 ema & held Feb 2nd high
Closed at 5 week high
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Harmonic completion zone at 13604 may act as magnet
Top of longer term Neutral zone within striking distance
Yields holding below 4%
Potential positive reaction to FOMC Meeting and Earnings
Historically bullish period for stocks
Earnings momentum led by AAPL
BEARISH NOTES
Potential double top at Mar 27th High
VIX is at 15.77 and due for a spike.
Stock 5,1 overbought
Potential negative reaction to FOMC and earnings (AAPL)
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Potential hard reversal at harmonic completion zone (13604)
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Sell in May talk will begin
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 1.91% gain last week after trading in a range of 524 points.
• Price reclaimed the 9 ema & remained above the 21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLC, XLK. Weakest was XLU
• NQ recent 4 week range is poised to finally break one way or the other
• Key catalyst this week will be the FOMC rate decision & commentary on the Wednesday
• This week’s earnings include reports from AAPL, LYFT, UBER, MRO, AMD, SEDG, COIN, BUD & PFE
• Bearish Harmonic still in play with completion at 13640.
• Still in a historically bullish period for stocks but talk will start about sell in May.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday US Factory Orders & US JOLTS
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change, US S&P Serviced PMI, EIA Crude & FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Statement, US Trade Balance & US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday US Unemployment Rate, US Non Farm Payrolls
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ANET, CAR, DF, FANG, L, MGM, NXPI, SFM, SOFI, SYK,
Tuesday AMD, AME, BP, CHK, CMI, CZR, ECL, EIX, ETN, F, MAR, MPC, MTCH, PAYC, PFE, QSR, SBUX, SRPT, SYY, TAP, UBER, WU, XP, ZBH,
Wednesday ALB, ALL, CFLT, CTSH, CVS, EL, ETSY, FTS, GOLD, IR, KHC, MET, MRO, PSA, QCOM, QRVO, RUN, SEDG, TT, WING, YUM, Z
Thursday AAPL, AIG, BCE, BUD, CAH, CNQ, COIN, COP, DASH, DBX, DDOG, DKNG, ED, EXPE, FTNT, H, K, LYFT, MCHP, MRNA,
Friday DISH, ENB, FLR, JCI, NVO
BULLISH NOTES
NQ reclaimed 9 ema & held Feb 2nd high
Closed at 5 week high
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Harmonic completion zone at 13604 may act as magnet
Top of longer term Neutral zone within striking distance
Yields holding below 4%
Potential positive reaction to FOMC Meeting and Earnings
Historically bullish period for stocks
Earnings momentum led by AAPL
BEARISH NOTES
Potential double top at Mar 27th High
VIX is at 15.77 and due for a spike.
Stock 5,1 overbought
Potential negative reaction to FOMC and earnings (AAPL)
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Potential hard reversal at harmonic completion zone (13604)
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Sell in May talk will begin
Comment:
Took a few days off. Didn't miss much as $NQ_F has just been consoldating above the Feb 2nd high waiting on FOMC. Despite all recent news, bankes ect. nothing likely to happen until we get throught the rate decision and commentary + AAPL earnings.
Comment:
Despite the massive amount of negative news re banks ect the indexes are holding up. $NQ_F traded below the Feb 2nd low this am but has recovered early losses. Still a waiting game right now. Market clearly waiting on the
AAPL
earnings tonight and potential plan to save banks.
AAPL
earnings tonight and potential plan to save banks.
Comment:
Explosive move following Non-Farm Payrolls as market decides the economy is holding up and rate hikes may be coming to an end. Now at 786 Fib resistance. If price gets above the 786 look for move to the 886 fib and the harmonic completion at 13640.
