NQ1!, Strong Rejection Suggest the Short term Top
A strong down move initiated from the Globex session found continuation in the RTH. Not often we can see the Globex and the RTH traders agendas in sync. A rejection from the large timeframe resistance suggests that the price discovery is done and the short term top is established. We may see a continuation to the downside to solidify the balance bottom. On the chart the last box bottom is an approximation based on the recent action. But the market will make the last stroke and show the exact place. The short term bias now is neutral. The large and intermediate biases remain bullish.
During the RTH session the FOMC level 7376.25 found some buyers. It provided a tradeable reaction to upside. But eventually, the sellers overpowered and made a new low. The price hit a good support level which is a confluence with a VWAP originated from 7072.75 launching point(RTH).
I added a Fib retracement on the recent upside swing. As you can see the price did not reach 38.2%. The buyers can show up at those levels and reverse targeting the balance top and even higher. With increased volatility and daily ranges that recovery is not hard to achieve for the buyers.
In the following days we may see a battle between buyers and sellers, a blow exhange, and spike in volatility. This is typical when the bias shifts to neutral. Being in the middle of the projected balance the price will be going up and down meaninglessly. Momentum trades will dominate creating larger swings. It requires to read the market in real-time.
Outside of the price action analysis: There is a beginning of the share buy back blackout period. That could slow down the buyers and only increase the odds for choppy action.
Have a nice weekend
03/22/2019
During the RTH session the FOMC level 7376.25 found some buyers. It provided a tradeable reaction to upside. But eventually, the sellers overpowered and made a new low. The price hit a good support level which is a confluence with a VWAP originated from 7072.75 launching point(RTH).
I added a Fib retracement on the recent upside swing. As you can see the price did not reach 38.2%. The buyers can show up at those levels and reverse targeting the balance top and even higher. With increased volatility and daily ranges that recovery is not hard to achieve for the buyers.
In the following days we may see a battle between buyers and sellers, a blow exhange, and spike in volatility. This is typical when the bias shifts to neutral. Being in the middle of the projected balance the price will be going up and down meaninglessly. Momentum trades will dominate creating larger swings. It requires to read the market in real-time.
Outside of the price action analysis: There is a beginning of the share buy back blackout period. That could slow down the buyers and only increase the odds for choppy action.
Have a nice weekend
03/22/2019