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NQ1!, Backtest of the Monthly Pivot

CME_MINI:NQ1!   NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures
Last week the market broke the monthly pivot and rushed to retest the monthly S1. The idea was presented in the last post. Buy side has defended the S1 and pushed the price back to monthly pivot . The week started and ended at the monthly pivot . This is half-full-half-empty situation depending on one's view. Considering a short term exhaustion, I would expect a small consolidation before an attempt to breach the monthly pivot . The market is approaching the month end, the quarter end and several option expiration events next week. That could create a roller-coaster while participants do the position management. However, one need to stay focused and ignore the noise. The context is simple: the monthly pivot is accepted or rejected.

A note to myself: when the market is at an inflection level there is a natural desire to predict where the price goes from here. A curious mind is searching for answers by looking at the macro economics, other assets correlation and etc. Such exercise is a waste of time. The objective way is to wait for the market to show its hand by reacting at the inflection levels. Save yourself from a headache to draw the projections. The inflection levels are known ahead of time and the Machines calculated them as well.

09/25/2021